Growth in a Time of Debt
2010 · paper · Economics
Analyzes growth and inflation against government and external debt using data on forty-four countries over about two hundred years. Finds median growth falls about one percentage point when public debt exceeds 90 percent of GDP, with lower external debt thresholds in emerging markets.
Checked: PDF from nber.org, fetched 5 Oct 2026. Page numbers are those of that PDF.
10 findings
Substance The text says "Note that of the 1186 annual observations" for the Figure 2 sample, but the Figure 2 notes say "There are 1,180 observations" and the four group counts in the notes (443, 442, 199, 96) sum to 1,180.
- p. 8 Section III.A, paragraph 1
Note that of the 1186 annual
- p. 9 Figure 2 notes
There are 1,180 observations.
- p. 8 Section III.A
Note that of the 1186 annual observations
- p. 8 Section IV.A text
of the 1186 annual observations
Judge's note: Viewed page 8 (text) and page 9 (Figure 2 notes). Both describe the same sample: 20 advanced economies, 1946-2009, and both give 96 observations above 90 percent. No statement in the paper names a different sample or explains six further observations. The group counts support 1,180, so the text figure is the one that does not fit.
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Substance Figure 2 and Appendix Table 1 give different average and median growth for the same sample (advanced economies, 1946-2009, central government debt): the bars read about 3.8/2.9/3.5/-0.1 (average) and 3.9/3.0/3.3/2.3 (median), while the appendix prints "4.1 2.8 2.8 -0.1" and "4.2 3.0 2.9 1.6".
- p. 9 Figure 2, bars (Average/Median for each debt group)
GDP growth (bars, left axis)
- p. 26 Appendix Table 1, Advanced economies, Average and Median rows
4.1 2.8 2.8 -0.1
- p. 8 Section III.A text describing Figure 2
median growth roughly 1 percent lower than the lower debt burden groups and mean levels of
- p. 9 Figure 2, bars (Average/Median for each debt group)
Figure 2. Government Debt, Growth, and Inflation: Selected Advanced Economies, 1946-2009
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Viewed Figure 2 on page 9 against its left axis (gridlines 1.0 apart) and Appendix Table 1 on page 26. My own read-off: below 30%: 3.8, 3.9; 30-60%: 2.9, 3.0; 60-90%: 3.5, 3.3; above 90%: -0.1, 2.3. The 60-90% average (3.5 against 2.8) and the above-90% median (2.3 against 1.6) each differ by 0.7, far beyond reading error; the -0.1 and 3.0 cells agree, so the axis is being read correctly. Footnote 6 on page 8 presents the appendix tables as the 1946-2009 summary statistics for the same analysis, and nothing in the paper names a different sample, weighting or data vintage (the 1186 against 1,180 observation counts in C012 may point to two data versions). The text on page 8 ("median growth roughly 1 percent lower", "mean levels of growth almost 4 percent lower") fits the figure. Only the authors can say which set is right.
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Substance The median inflation line in Figure 2 starts at about 4.9 for debt/GDP below 30% (visibly below the 5 gridline), while Appendix Table 2 prints a median of "5.2" for the same group (row "5.2 3.7 3.5 3.9").
- p. 9 Figure 2, inflation line (right axis), below 30% group
Inflation
- p. 26 Appendix Table 2, Advanced economies, Median row
5.2 3.7 3.5 3.9
- p. 9 Figure 2, inflation line (right axis), debt/GDP below 30%
Inflation (line, right axis)
- p. 26 Appendix Table 2, Advanced economies
Median 1946-2009 5.2 3.7 3.5 3.9
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Viewed Figure 2 on page 9 and Appendix Table 2 on page 26. On the right axis the 5 tick is at about y=311 and the 4.5 tick at y=379; the first segment of the line is at about y=323, i.e. about 4.9. The other points read about 3.8, 3.5 and 4.0 against 3.7, 3.5 and 3.9 in the table (within 0.1). Page 8 says the line plots median inflation and footnote 6 points to Appendix Table 2 for the same statistics; no different sample is named. Kept separate from C014 because it concerns a different series and table, though the two probably share a cause (figure and appendix built from different versions of the data).
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Substance Figure 5 "Inflation (line, right axis)" plots about 12.5 (debt/GDP below 30%) and 14.5 (30 to 60%), then 13.2 and 16.6; Appendix Table 2 (Total Gross External Debt/GDP, 1970-2009) gives "Median 10.9 12.1 13.2 16.6" and "Average 10.3 17.0 37.1 23.4". The first two plotted points match neither row, and the figure shows inflation falling from the 30-60 to the 60-90 group where the table shows a steady rise.
- p. 18 Figure 5, inflation line (right axis), groups below 30% and 30 to 60%
Inflation
- p. 26 Appendix Table 2, Total Gross External Debt/GDP, Median row
10.9 12.1 13.2 16.6
- p. 17 Section III.C text
Inflation becomes
- p. 18 Figure 5, inflation line (right axis), first two debt groups
Inflation (line, right axis)
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Read the line on the page image against the right axis (10 to 17, gridlines per unit): first segment midway between 12 and 13, second midway between 14 and 15, third just above 13, fourth at about 16.6. The last two agree with the appendix medians to the decimal, so the axis is being read correctly and the series is the median; the first two are about 1.6 and 2.4 higher than the table. Same sample and period in both (external debt, 1970-2009); no note in the figure or the text explains a different statistic or sample. Only the authors can say which is right. The secondary point (the sentence "Inflation becomes significantly higher only for the group of observations with external debt over 90 percent" holds for the medians but not for the averages 17.0 and 37.1) is a wording matter folded into this entry.
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Substance Text: Latin America "now has gross external debt liabilities averaging only around 50 percent of GDP"; in the right panel of Figure 6 the Latin America bar ends at about 30 percent, well short of the 50 tick.
- p. 21 Section III.C, paragraph on Latin America
gross external debt liabilities averaging only around 50 percent of GDP
- p. 20 Figure 6, right panel, Latin America bar
Latin America
- p. 21 text after Figure 6
averaging only around 50 percent of GDP
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Measured on the crop: right-panel axis 0 at x=1039 and 50 at x=1188; the Latin America bar ends at x=1130, about 30.5, level with Africa and Asia (ex. Hong Kong) and below Japan (about 42). The paragraph is describing the right-hand side of this figure and gives no other source or date. The gap of about 20 points is far more than the reading error. The authors would have to say whether the text or the bar is right.
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Reference or label The text cites "Reinhart and Rogoff (2008, 2009b)" as where the data set was first presented, but the reference list has no 2008 entry for these authors (only 2009a, 2009b and the 2003 paper with Savastano).
- p. 4 Introduction, paragraph on the data set
(2008, 2009b)
- p. 25 References
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2009a.
- p. 4 Introduction
first presented in Reinhart and Rogoff (2008, 2009b)
- p. 4 Section I para 2
Reinhart and Rogoff (2008, 2009b)
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Viewed page 4 (citation) and page 25 (the complete reference list of five entries: Barro 1979, Jeanne and Gucina 2006, Reinhart and Rogoff 2009a, 2009b, Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano 2003). No 2008 item exists. Only the authors can say which 2008 work is meant. Secondary point also true: notes to Table 1, Table 2 and Figure 3 cite "Reinhart and Rogoff (2009)" without a/b (seen in the text layer for pages 11, 13, 16).
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Reference or label Table 1 notes say "Minimum and maximum values for each debt range are shown in bolded italics", but in the "90 percent and above" column New Zealand's 3.6 is bolded while Australia's 4.6, the largest value, is not.
- p. 13 Table 1, 90 percent and above column, New Zealand (bold) and Australia (not bold)
Australia 1902-2009 3.1 4.1 2.3 4.6
- p. 13 Table 1 notes
Minimum and maximum
- p. 13 Table 1, 90 percent and above column
Minimum and maximum values for each debt range are shown in bolded italics.
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: On the page image (PDF page 13) the bold italic cells in the last column are 3.6 (New Zealand) and -1.8 (United States); Australia's 4.6 is in plain type. In the other three columns the bolded cells are the true minimum and maximum (1.6/5.4, 0.3/4.9, 1.3/4.8). 3.6 is the maximum only if the first rows of the table are left out, the same pattern as the Average row in C019. Either the marking or the 4.6 needs the authors' attention.
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Reference or label Figure 4 notes say "The 24 emerging market countries included are Argentina, ... Kenya, Korea, Malaysia, ... and Venezuela" but list 25 names; Korea is in the list and has no row in Table 2 (24 rows).
- p. 15 Figure 4 notes
The 24 emerging market countries included are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
- p. 15 Figure 4 notes, list
Kenya, Korea, Malaysia
- p. 16 Table 2, country rows
Kenya 1963-2009
- p. 15 Figure 4 notes
The 24 emerging market countries included are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Korea, Malaysia
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Counted the names in the Figure 4 notes on the page image (PDF page 15): 25, including Korea. Counted the Table 2 rows on page 16: 24, with Kenya followed directly by Malaysia. The text on page 13 says the same debt-ratio exercise is done for '24 emerging market economies' for both 1946-2009 and 1900-2009, and the abstract's forty-four countries equals 20 advanced plus 24 emerging. Korea does appear in the separate 20-country external-debt list of Figure 5. No statement in the paper explains a 25th country, so either the count or the list is wrong.
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Reference or label Reference list: "Barro, Robert J. 1979. “On the Determination of the Public Debt,” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 5: 940-971." The 1979 volume of the journal is 87, not 85.
- p. 25 References, Barro entry
Economy, Vol. 85, No. 5: 940-971.
- p. 25 References
Vol. 85, No. 5: 940-971
- p. 25 References
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 5: 940-971.
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the Journal of Political Economy's 1979 volume is 87 (volume 85 being 1977) and that Barro's article is in 87(5), pages 940-971. The entry reads as quoted on the page image of PDF page 25; the volume number cannot be checked from the files, so it should be checked against the journal.
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Wording Text says "Figure 3 spans 1791-2009", while the Figure 3 title reads "1790-2009" and Table 1 gives the United States period as "1790-2009".
- p. 10 Text preceding Figure 3
Figure 3 spans 1791-
- p. 11 Figure 3 title
1790-2009
- p. 11 Figure 3 title
Growth, and Inflation: 1790-2009
Judge's note: Read the text on PDF page 10, the Figure 3 title on page 11 and the United States row of Table 1 on page 13. The start year differs by one. The Figure 3 notes give 216 observations, which fits neither span exactly (219 or 220 years), and the paper does not say that growth or inflation starts a year after debt. Either year could be the intended one.
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30 minor (typos and the like; most checked by the judge only)
Reference or label The introduction says "The final section, however, discusses the role of private domestic debt", but private debt is treated in "IV. Private Sector Debt: An Illustration", which is followed by "V. Concluding Remarks".
- p. 5 Introduction, last paragraph
The final section, however, discusses the role of private domestic debt
- p. 23 Section heading
V. Concluding Remarks
- p. 21 Section headings
IV. Private Sector Debt: An Illustration
Judge's note: Viewed page 5, the Section IV heading on page 21 and the Section V heading on page 23. The concluding section does not discuss US private domestic debt. "Final section" can be read as the last substantive section before the conclusion, so this is a loose pointer and not a misleading one.
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Wording The four debt groups are named "(low debt) ... (medium debt); 60 to 90 percent (high); and above 90 percent (very high)" in the text, but "low, medium-low, medium-high, and high debt levels" in footnote 5 attached to that sentence, and Section III.B has "high debt (above 90 percent)"; "high" therefore names two different groups.
- p. 8 Section III.A, paragraph 1
below 30 percent (low debt); years where debt/GDP was 30 to 60 percent (medium debt); 60 to
- p. 8 Footnote 5
low, medium-low, medium-high, and high debt levels
- p. 8 Section III.A
90 percent (high); and above 90 percent (very high)
- p. 14 Section III.B
for high debt (above 90
Judge's note: Viewed page 8 (text and footnote 5) and page 14. All three wordings are on the page images. The cut-offs are identical and are always given alongside, so no number is affected; label inconsistency only.
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Wording Notes to Table 1, Table 2 and Figure 3 cite "Reinhart and Rogoff (2009)" with no letter, although the reference list has 2009a and 2009b.
- p. 13 Table 1 notes and sources
appendices to Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and are available from the authors
- p. 16 Table 2 notes and sources
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009).
- p. 11 Figure 3 sources
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and sources cited therein
- p. 13 Table 1 notes
data appendices to Reinhart and Rogoff (2009)
Judge's note: Read the notes on PDF pages 11, 13 and 16 and the reference list entries (2009a 'The Aftermath of Financial Crises', 2009b 'This Time is Different'). The other figure notes cite 2009b. The mention of 'data appendices' points to the book (2009b), so a reader can resolve it, but the citation as printed is incomplete.
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Wording Figure 4's "Median Inflation (line, right axis)" sits at about 6.4 for debt below 30%, whereas Appendix Table 2 prints "Median 1946-2009 6.0 7.5 11.7 16.5"; the >90% median growth bar reads 3.0 against 2.9 in Appendix Table 1.
- p. 15 Figure 4, median inflation line (right axis), below 30% group
Median Inflation
- p. 26 Appendix Table 2, Emerging Markets, Median row
6.0 7.5 11.7 16.5
- p. 26 Appendix Table 2, Emerging Markets Median
Median 1946-2009 6.0 7.5 11.7 16.5
- p. 15 Figure 4, median inflation line
Median Inflation (line, right axis)
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Measured the line on the full-page image of PDF page 15. Right-axis ticks 5 and 7 are about 90 pixels apart; the first segment lies about 63 pixels above the 5 tick, which is about 6.4. The other three segments land on 7.5, 11.7 and 16.5 as tabulated, so the reading is not generally offset. The red median bar ends on the 3.0 gridline while Appendix Table 1 (page 26) and the text give 2.9. Both gaps are small and read from a chart, so this is a question for the authors rather than a certain error.
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Wording Text: "Latin American countries actually delivered external debt by over 30 percent of GDP"; in the left panel of Figure 6 the Latin America bar stops short of the -30 tick, at about -27.
- p. 21 Section III.C, paragraph on Latin America
delivered external debt by over 30
- p. 20 Figure 6, left panel, Latin America bar and axis
-30 -10 10 30 50
- p. 21 Section III.C
Latin American countries actually delivered external debt by over 30
- p. 21 Section III.C, last paragraph
delivered external debt by over 30 percent of GDP
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Measured on the crops: left-panel ticks at x=393 (-30), 493 (-10), 593 (10), 693 (30), 793 (50), so 5 px per point and zero at x=543; the Latin America bar's left edge is at x=407, about -27. The figure has no data labels and the shortfall is about 3 points, so this is a wording mismatch rather than a clear numeric error. The wrong word "delivered" in the same sentence is handled in C038 and the "average of 50 percent" for advanced countries in C041.
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Wording Text: "the advanced countries who added an average of 50 percent of GDP to gross external debt"; in the left panel of Figure 6 the "Advanced economies" bar ends at about 43, and only "Europe-Advanced" reaches about 50.
- p. 21 Section III.C, paragraph on Latin America
the advanced countries who added an average of 50 percent of GDP to gross external debt
- p. 20 Figure 6, left panel, Advanced economies and Europe-Advanced bars
Advanced economies
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Measured on the crops: left panel 5 px per point, zero at x=543; the Advanced economies bar ends at x=759 (about 43) and the Europe-Advanced bar at x=797 (about 51). The sentence may be using "advanced countries" loosely for advanced Europe, which the preceding paragraph discusses, so this is a question of wording for the authors rather than a clear error.
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Typo The count is hyphenated in the abstract and introduction ("forty-four countries") but not in the concluding remarks ("forty four countries").
- p. 2 Abstract
forty-four countries
- p. 23 Concluding remarks
forty four countries
Judge's note: Viewed pages 2, 4 and 23. Both forms are printed as quoted. Pure style inconsistency; the number is the same.
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Typo The same co-author is spelled "Jeanne and Guscina (2006)" in footnote 3 and "Jeanne, Olivier and Anastasia Gucina 2006." in the reference list.
- p. 4 Footnote 3
Jeanne and Guscina (2006)
- p. 25 References
Jeanne, Olivier and Anastasia Gucina 2006.
- p. 4 Footnote 3
Savasatano (2003) and Jeanne and Guscina (2006)
- p. 4 Section I, para 2
first presented in Reinhart and Rogoff
Judge's note: Viewed page 4 footnote 3 and page 25 reference list; both spellings are printed as quoted, so one is a misspelling (which one cannot be settled from the files alone). The other items bundled into this cluster are handled elsewhere: "Savasatano" in C004, "Unites States" and "Moreoever" in C005, the missing 2008 reference in C002. The claim that Barro (1979) is JPE vol. 87 rather than the printed "Vol. 85, No. 5: 940-971" rests on outside knowledge of the journal and cannot be verified here; it would be an author query, not part of this confirmation.
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Typo Footnote 3 prints "Reinhart, Rogoff and Savasatano (2003)"; the name is "Savastano" in footnote 5, the concluding remarks and the reference list.
- p. 4 Footnote 3
Savasatano (2003)
Judge's note: Viewed page 4 (footnote 3: "Savasatano"), page 8 (footnote 5: "Savastano"), page 25 (reference list: "Miguel Savastano"). Page 24 text layer also has "Savastano". Clear misspelling on the page image, not an extraction artefact.
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Typo "what is the long run macroeconomic impact or higher levels of government debt": "or" is printed for "of"; further slips of the same kind: "the Unites States" (p. 10), "Moreoever" and "actually delivered external debt by over 30 percent of GDP" (p. 21, evidently "delevered"), "the connection between for gross external debt" (p. 17), "In the case Europe" (p. 25), "Australia. Austria," (Figure 2 notes).
- p. 4 First paragraph
macroeconomic impact or higher levels of government debt
- p. 4 Introduction, first line of page
the long run macroeconomic impact or higher levels of government debt
- p. 10 p 9
for the Unites States
- p. 21 Section III.C
Moreoever, in contrast
Judge's note: Viewed pages 4, 10, 17, 21, 25 and 9; each quoted slip is on the page image. "delivered" is the only one that could mislead, but the contrast with countries that "added" debt and the "Deleveraging" label in Figure 6 make the intended sense clear. "World, Bank" (p. 20) and "Global Development Finance, )," (p. 11) are in the text layer; those two page images were not opened.
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Typo Footnote 4: "time series of broader measures government are not available for many countries"; words are missing (evidently "broader measures of government debt").
- p. 5 footnote 4
broader measures government are
Judge's note: Viewed page 5; footnote 4 reads as quoted on the image.
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Typo Figure 1: the "Debt/GDP 2009" values for the non-crisis countries are not aligned with the country rows (for example 22 sits between Norway and Australia, 119 between Greece and Canada, 182 between Japan and Brazil).
- p. 6 Figure 1, Debt/GDP 2009 column
Debt/GDP 2009
Judge's note: Viewed page 6. The five crisis-country values line up with their bars; the 15 values below the crisis average are spaced more tightly than the 15 country rows and drift by about half a row. Mapping by order works: the 15 values average 48.7, printed as 49, and the five crisis values average 62.2, printed as 62. Layout defect only; no value is wrong.
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Typo "Assuming taxes ultimately need to be raised to achieve debt sustainability, the distortionary impact imply is likely to lower potential output.": the word "imply" does not fit; the sentence is garbled.
- p. 7 Section III, paragraph 1
distortionary impact imply is likely to lower potential output
- p. 7 Section III first paragraph
the distortionary impact imply is likely to lower potential output
Judge's note: Viewed page 7; the sentence reads as quoted on the image. Editing residue (perhaps "the distortionary impact implied is likely").
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Typo Figure 2 notes: "The 20 advanced economies included are Australia. Austria, Belgium, ..." has a full stop where a comma belongs.
- p. 9 Figure 2 notes
Australia. Austria,
Judge's note: Read the Figure 2 notes on the page image (PDF page 9). The full stop after 'Australia' is visible in the image, so it is not an extraction artefact.
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Typo Stray punctuation in figure notes: Figure 6 sources "World, Bank, Quarterly External Debt Statistics"; Figure 3 sources "Global Development Finance, ), US Treasury Direct"; Figure 2 notes "are Australia. Austria, Belgium".
- p. 20 Figure 6 sources
World, Bank, Quarterly External Debt
- p. 11 Figure 3 sources
Development Finance, ), US Treasury Direct
- p. 9 Figure 2 notes
are Australia. Austria
- p. 11 Figure 3 Sources
Global Development Finance, ), US Treasury Direct
Judge's note: All three are visible on the images: a comma inside "World Bank" (page 20), an unmatched closing parenthesis after a comma (page 11), and a full stop where a comma belongs in the country list (page 9).
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Typo "as Figure 3 makes plain for the Unites States" should read "United States".
- p. 10 Text preceding Figure 3
Unites States
- p. 10
as Figure 3 makes plain for the Unites States
Judge's note: Visible on the page image of PDF page 10.
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Typo Table 2 has stray full stops after five values: "3.2." (Ecuador, 60 to 90), "4.2." (India, below 30), "1.2." (Mexico, 60 to 90), "2.6." (Nigeria, 90 and above) and "4.0." (Singapore, 90 and above).
- p. 16 Table 2, Ecuador 60-90; India below 30; Mexico 60-90; Nigeria 90+; Singapore 90+
3.2.
- p. 16 Table 2, India, below 30 percent
4.2.
- p. 16 Table 2, Mexico, 60 to 90 percent
1.2.
- p. 16 Table 2, Nigeria, 90 percent and above
2.6.
Judge's note: All five trailing full stops are visible on the page image of PDF page 16; no other numeric cell has one.
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Typo Table 2 notes: "There are missing observations for some years details are provided in the data appendices" runs two clauses together with no punctuation.
- p. 16 Table 2 notes
observations for some years details are provided
Judge's note: Read on the page image of PDF page 16. The matching Table 1 note separates the clauses with a semicolon ('...World War I and II years; further details are provided...').
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Typo "In Figure 5, we highlight the connection between for gross external debt as reported by the World Bank and growth and inflation" contains a surplus word ("between for").
- p. 17 Section III.C, paragraph 2
we highlight the connection between for gross external debt
- p. 17 Section C, 2nd paragraph
the connection between for gross external debt
Judge's note: Read on the page image of PDF page 17. The next sentence has a similar slip: 'considerably lower than for the thresholds for total public debt'.
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Typo Doubled punctuation: footnote 9 ends "rises to 266 percent!."; page 19 has "or a decrease (deleveraging.)."
- p. 21 footnote 9
266 percent!.
- p. 19 first paragraph
(deleveraging.)
Judge's note: Both visible on the images: an exclamation mark followed by a full stop in footnote 9 (PDF page 21), and a full stop both inside and after the closing parenthesis on PDF page 19.
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Typo Figure 6 notes: stray comma in "United Kingdom, (15 countries)".
- p. 20 Figure 6 sources/notes
World, Bank, Quarterly External Debt
- p. 20 Figure 6 notes
United Kingdom, (15 countries)
Judge's note: Visible on the page image of PDF page 20. The other item in this cluster, "World, Bank", is already covered by C033; this entry is kept for the "Kingdom, (15 countries)" comma only.
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Typo Wrong word: "Latin American countries actually delivered external debt by over 30 percent of GDP"; "delevered" (or "reduced") is meant.
- p. 21 Section III.C, paragraph on Latin America
Latin American countries actually delivered external debt
Judge's note: Read on the page image of PDF page 21. The sentence contrasts countries that added debt with ones that cut it, and Figure 6 labels that direction "Deleveraging".
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Typo Missing word: "(The fact that a sizable share of these debts are intra-European may or may prove a significant mitigating factor.)"; "may or may not prove" is meant.
- p. 21 Section III.C, paragraph 1 after Figure 6
may or
- p. 21 Section III.C, parenthesis
may or may prove a significant mitigating factor
Judge's note: Read on the page image of PDF page 21; the phrase runs "may or" at a line end and "may prove" at the start of the next line, with no "not".
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Typo Misspelling: "Moreoever, in contrast to the advanced countries" should read "Moreover".
- p. 21 Section III.C, paragraph on Latin America
Moreoever
- p. 21
Moreoever, in contrast
Judge's note: Read on the page image of PDF page 21.
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Typo Sentence printed twice in succession in Section IV: "Just as a rapid expansion in private credit fuels the boom phase of the cycle, so does serious deleveraging exacerbate the post-crisis downturn."
- p. 22 Section IV, paragraph 2
exacerbate the post-crisis downturn. Just as a rapid expansion in private credit fuels the boom
- p. 22 Section IV, second paragraph
Just as a rapid expansion in private credit fuels the boom phase of the cycle, so does serious deleveraging exacerbate the post-crisis downturn.
- p. 22
Just as a rapid expansion in private credit fuels the boom phase of the cycle, so does serious deleveraging
Judge's note: Both copies are on the page image of PDF page 22, one directly after the other; not an extraction artefact.
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Typo Footnote 10: "push economies in to the vulnerable 90+ debt/GDP range" ("into"); main text: "growth thresholds for advanced economies remains an open question" (plural subject, singular verb).
- p. 22 footnote 10
push economies in to the
- p. 22 first paragraph
growth thresholds for advanced economies remains an open question
Judge's note: Both read on the page image of PDF page 22.
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Typo Missing word: "In the case Europe, the advanced country average exceeds 200 percent external debt to GDP" should read "In the case of Europe".
- p. 25 Concluding remarks, last paragraph
In the case
- p. 25 first paragraph
In the case Europe
- p. 25
In the case Europe, the advanced country average
Judge's note: Full page image of PDF page 25 shows the first paragraph reading "In the case" at the line end, followed by "Europe, the advanced country average..." on the next line. The word "of" is absent in the published page, so this is not an extraction artefact.
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Typo Last reference entry: "Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano. 2003. „Debt Intolerance“" has a doubled "and" in the author list and low-high („ “) quotation marks, where every other entry uses “ ”.
- p. 25 References, last entry
„Debt Intolerance“
- p. 25 References, last entry
Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano
Judge's note: Crop and full page image of PDF page 25 both show the opening quotation mark set low („) and the closing mark as “, unlike the Barro, Jeanne and Reinhart-Rogoff 2009a entries. The author list reads "Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano". Both points are cosmetic.
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Typo The reference list spells the author "Jeanne, Olivier and Anastasia Gucina 2006", while the text cites "Jeanne and Guscina (2006)".
- p. 25
Anastasia Gucina 2006
Judge's note: Crop and full page image of PDF page 25 show "Gucina" in the reference entry. The body text (extract/main.txt line 118) cites "Jeanne and Guscina (2006)"; that citation was checked in the text layer only, not on a page image. The two spellings of one name differ within the paper, which is verifiable from the files. That "Guscina" is the correct form is the reviewer's assumption and matches the text citation, but it is not established by the files.
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Typo Appendix Table 1 panel heading reads "Central (Federal) government debt/ GDP-" with a trailing hyphen; the same heading in Appendix Table 2 reads "Central (Federal) government debt/ GDP".
- p. 26 Appendix Table 1
Central (Federal) government debt/ GDP-
Judge's note: The crop of PDF page 26 shows the hyphen directly after "GDP", with "Advanced economies" on the next row. The text layer gives the same heading without a hyphen in Appendix Table 2 and in the earlier tables (extract/main.txt lines 399, 647, 1196); those were not checked on a page image. The hyphen may be a stray character or an intended dash before the sub-heading, so either form could be legitimate.
Second check: none (judge only)