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The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2003 · paper · Economics

Studies how computerization changes job skill demands, arguing computers substitute for routine tasks and complement non-routine problem solving. Task shifts explain 30 to 40 percent of the 1970–1998 relative demand shift toward college-educated labor.

Checked: PDF from nber.org, fetched 5 Oct 2026. Page numbers are those of that PDF.

23 findings

Substance Eq. (18) prints "ΔD_τ = D_τ − D_t = Δln[(w_cτN_cτ/w_hτN_hτ)] + (σ−1)ln(w_cτ/w_hτ)"; the second term is a level, not a change.
  • p. 34 Equation (18)
    (σ −1) ln(w_cτ / w_hτ)

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: My own working from eq. (17): σ ln(w_c/w_h) = D − ln(N_c/N_h), so D_t = ln(w_ct N_ct/(w_ht N_ht)) + (σ−1) ln(w_ct/w_ht). Taking first differences gives ΔD = Δln(wage-bill ratio) + (σ−1)Δln(w_c/w_h). On the p034 image the Δ applies only to the bracketed wage-bill term, which closes before '+', and the second term carries τ subscripts with no Δ. The text below describes the term as depending on 'the change in the log college wage premium', so the formula as printed does not match the derivation or the text. This is probably a dropped Δ.

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Substance In Figure 3 ("Contribution of Computerization to Task Change Within Education Groups"), the "HS Grads" bars match the all-worker Table 7 Panel A coefficients times 0.198, not the high-school-graduate Panel B coefficients (e.g. routine cognitive bar ≈ -0.22 vs Panel B -2.297×0.198 = -0.455).
  • p. 48 Figure 3, HS Grads bars
    HS Grads
  • p. 55 Table 7 Panel B
    -2.297

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: I read the bars from the image of p. 48. HS Grads bars: RC ≈ -0.22, RM ≈ -0.08, NRM ≈ +0.015, analytic ≈ +0.08, interactive ≈ +0.20. These match Panel A × 0.198 (-0.223, -0.080, 0.016, 0.079, 0.200). They do not match Panel B × 0.198 (-0.455, -0.165, 0.011, -0.002, 0.158). For the other three groups the bars match Appendix Table 4 × 0.198: dropouts RC -0.103, interactive 0.135; some college RC -0.284, interactive 0.148; college RC +0.078, interactive 0.098. The text (p. 25) says Figure 3 summarizes results for all education groups, so the HS Grads series appears to plot the wrong panel.

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Substance The Table 6 note gives the weighted mean of log(CI/L) as "-0.91 in 1990-97". The table's own coefficients and means require about -0.091, and the period is 1990-98 elsewhere in the table.
  • p. 54 Table 6 note
    -0.91 in 1990-97
  • p. 54 Table 6 notes
    and -0.91 in 1990-97
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel A, interactive, 90-98 NIPA
    0.266

Judge's note: In weighted OLS with decade dummies, mean ΔY in each decade = intercept + decade effect + β × mean x. Check with the printed means: col 1 1960-70 0.152-0.228×0.480 = 0.043 (0.042), 1970-80 0.039 (0.038), 1980-90 0.081 (0.080). For 1990-98, col 1 needs x = (0.096-0.117)/0.228 ≈ -0.092, col 3 needs (0.255-0.332)/0.854 ≈ -0.090, and col 5 needs ≈ -0.090. With -0.91, col 1 would give -0.090 against the printed 0.096. Table 10's 90-98 NIPA entries also fit -0.091 scaled by 0.8 for the 8-year period (interactive 0.266, analytic 0.071, RC -0.210, RM -0.102). Reviewer note 2's alternative (-0.169) is not supported by Table 6.

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Substance Table 8 row 'HS graduates' (0.050, 0.125, -0.141, -0.051, 0.010) equals 0.125 × the overall Table 7 Panel A coefficients (0.400, 1.008, -1.128, -0.402, 0.080), not a multiple of the HS-graduate coefficients in Table 7 Panel B (-0.011, 0.796, -2.297, -0.833, 0.056) as the other education rows are of their own Appendix Table 4 coefficients.
  • p. 56 Table 8, row 'HS graduates'
    0.050 33%
  • p. 55 Table 7 Panel B, ∆ Computer row
    -0.011

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Compared Table 8 (p56) with Table 7 (p55) and Appendix Table 4 (p62). Each of the dropout, some-college and college rows is a constant multiple of its own group coefficients: about 0.050, 0.088 and 0.089, which looks like employment share × 0.198 × 1.8. The HS row is exactly 0.125 × the Panel A coefficients in all five columns. Against Panel B the implied ratios vary, and in column 1 the sign is opposite (-0.011 gives +0.050). The 'within education groups' sums (0.069 = 0.003+0.050+0.019-0.003) carry this row, and so do the text's '45 to 91 percent' (p28). Nothing in the text or notes explains the use of Panel A coefficients for this row. Only the authors can say which coefficients were meant.

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Substance Table 10 Panel B: 'All tasks' (0.87, 0.88, 5.29) does not equal 'Routine tasks' + 'Non-routine tasks' in the NIPA 80-90 (0.39+0.44), 90-98 (0.39+0.45) and Sum 70-98 (3.36+1.85) columns, although the rows add up in the other four columns.
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel B
    0.87
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel B, rows 1-3
    1. Routine tasks 0.13 0.39 0.39 0.76 2.46 3.36 3.22 / 2. Non-routine tasks 0.15 0.44 0.45 0.99 0.81 1.85 1.80 / 3. All tasks 0.28 0.87 0.88 1.75 3.27 5.29 5.02
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel B, columns 80-90, 90-98 and Sum 70-98
    3. All tasks 0.28 0.87 0.88 1.75 3.27 5.29 5.02
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel B
    2. Non-routine tasks 0.15 0.44 0.45 0.99 0.81 1.85 1.80

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Checked in the p58 image. The 70-80, CPS 80-98, intensive and Sum 80-98 columns add exactly. The 80-90 and 90-98 columns are 0.04 short, and the gap carries into the 70-98 sum (row-wise, 0.28+0.87+0.88+3.27 = 5.30). Footnote 41's interaction term applies to the intensive margin, not to these NIPA columns. Footnote 43 says non-routine manual is a small offsetting contribution, which cannot produce a positive excess. Rounding cannot produce gaps of this size. The text's '5.3 percentage points over 1970-1998' uses row 3. It is not clear which entries are wrong.

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Substance Appendix Table 3, Routine Manual, 1970-80: intercept 0.040 and slope -0.390 imply a mean of about -0.058 at the weighted mean Δcomputer of 0.252, but the printed Mean Task Δ is -0.010, the same as the Table 5 (non-composite) value for that cell.
  • p. 61 Appendix Table 3, panel 4, column B
    -0.010
  • p. 61 Appendix Table 3, row 4 (Routine Manual), column B
    -0.390

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: In p61, every other checked cell of Appendix Table 3 satisfies intercept + β×0.252 ≈ mean within about 0.003. Examples are row 1 A-C, row 4 A and D, and row 5 B. The 0.252 comes from the Table 5 note, p53. This cell misses by about 0.05. Table 5 RM 1970-80 shows mean -0.010, consistent with its own 0.062 - 0.290×0.252. So the Appendix Table 3 entry may have been carried over from Table 5. Whether the intercept or the mean is misprinted is for the authors to say.

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Reference or label Reference entry "Berman, Eli and Stephen. 2000." omits the co-author's surname; the text cites "Berman and Machin (2000)".
  • p. 37 References
    Berman, Eli and Stephen. 2000.
  • p. 3 Footnote 1
    Berman and Machin (2000)

Judge's note: The p037 image shows the entry as quoted. The preceding Berman, Bound and Machin (1998) entry gives 'Stephen Machin', and footnote 1 cites Berman and Machin (2000).

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Reference or label Footnote 7 cites "(cf. Babbage, 1888)", but the only Babbage entry in the references is "Babbage, Henry P. 1883. 'The Analytical Engine.' Proceedings of the British Association."
  • p. 5 Footnote 7
    cf. Babbage, 1888
  • p. 37 References
    Babbage, Henry P. 1883.
  • p. 5 Footnote 7
    (cf. Babbage, 1888)
  • p. 37 References
    Babbage, Henry P. 1883. “The Analytical Engine.”

Judge's note: Checked footnote 7 (p. 5) and the reference list (p. 37). The years 1888 and 1883 differ, and a text search finds no other Babbage entry. The Bartel–Lichtenberg and Hounshell mismatches also listed here are judged separately as C003 and C007. Which year is correct can only be settled from outside the files.

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Reference or label Footnote 4 cites "Bartel and Lichtenberg (1989)", but the reference list gives "Bartel, Ann P. and Frank R. Lichtenberg. 1987." (REStat 69(1), 1–11).
  • p. 5 Footnote 4
    Bartel and Lichtenberg (1989)
  • p. 37 References
    Bartel, Ann P. and Frank R. Lichtenberg. 1987.

Judge's note: Checked footnote 4 (p. 5) and the reference list (p. 37). Only one Bartel–Lichtenberg entry exists, dated 1987.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label Footnote 7 cites "Acemoglu (1998 and 2000)", but the reference list has Acemoglu 1998, 1999 and 'forthcoming' (JEL) only, with no 2000 entry.
  • p. 6 Footnote 7 continuation
    As Acemoglu (1998 and 2000) argues
  • p. 6 Footnote 7 continuation
    As Acemoglu (1998 and 2000) argues forcefully
  • p. 37 References
    Acemoglu, Daron. forthcoming.
  • p. 6 fn 7
    Acemoglu (1998 and 2000)

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Checked the footnote 7 continuation on p. 6 and the Acemoglu entries on p. 37. No Acemoglu 2000 item exists, so it is unclear whether the 1999 AER paper or the forthcoming JEL survey is meant. Only the authors can say.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label Text on p. 7 cites "(cf., Hounshell, 1985; ...)", but the reference list gives "Hounshell, David A. 1984."
  • p. 7 Section 1
    Hounshell, 1985
  • p. 39 References
    Hounshell, David A. 1984.

Judge's note: Checked the p. 7 crop and the p. 39 reference entry. There is only one Hounshell entry, dated 1984.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label Footnote 14 cites "Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson and Hitt (1999)", but the only matching reference is dated 'Forthcoming' (QJE), and the same work is cited as '(forthcoming)' elsewhere.
  • p. 9 Footnote 14
    Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson and Hitt (1999)
  • p. 38 References
    Bresnahan, Timothy F., Erik Brynjolfsson, and Lorin M. Hitt. Forthcoming.

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Checked footnote 14 (p. 9) and the reference list (p. 38). No 1999 entry by these authors exists. The 1999 date may refer to a working-paper version, which only the authors can confirm.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label Footnote 34 cites 'Berndt, Morrison and Rosenblum (1995)', but the reference list has only 'Berndt, Ernst R. and Catherine J. Morrison. (1995)'.
  • p. 24 Footnote 34
    Berndt, Morrison and Rosenblum (1995)
  • p. 37 References
    Berndt, Ernst R. and Catherine J. Morrison. (1995)

Judge's note: The citation is in footnote 34 (p.24) and the entry is on p.37 (Journal of Econometrics 65, 9-43). No Rosenblum entry exists. The two author lists disagree. Which list is correct (the published article includes Rosenblum) is outside knowledge, but the mismatch between citation and entry is visible on the pages.

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Reference or label Pointers to tables that do not exist: A.5 says composite models "are found in Panel B of Table 2 and in Appendix Table 5", and the Table 8 note cites "Table 7 and Appendix Table 6". Only Appendix Tables 1–4 exist; the composite models are in Appendix Table 3.
  • p. 44 Data Appendix A.5
    are found in Panel B of Table 2 and in Appendix Table 5
  • p. 24 Section 4c
    (Appendix Table 3)
  • p. 56 Table 8 note
    Table 7 and Appendix Table 6
  • p. 44 Data Appendix A.5
    Panel B of Table 2 and in Appendix Table 5

Judge's note: Searching the text finds only Appendix Tables 1–4 (pp. 59–62). Appendix Table 3 is the composite-measure table, and the main text (p. 24) cites it as '(Appendix Table 3)'. The education-group regressions behind Table 8 are in Appendix Table 4, which footnote 39 cites, so 'Appendix Table 6' most likely means Appendix Table 4. No supplement in the files contains Tables 5 or 6.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label P.29 calls the NAS (1981) DOT-COC crosswalk 'the 1973 CPS file' and says 'we hold this distribution fixed at the 1973 level', but Data Appendix A.2 describes the same NAS (1981) file as 'a special version of the April 1971 CPS Monthly File' and A.4 calls it 'our 1971 CPS file'.
  • p. 29 Section 5b
    represented by the 1973 CPS file (National Academy of Sciences, 1981)
  • p. 42 Data Appendix A.2
    a special version of the April 1971 CPS Monthly File
  • p. 29 Section 5b
    represented by the 1973 CPS file
  • p. 42 A.2
    April 1971 CPS Monthly File

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: P.29 cites National Academy of Sciences (1981) for the '1973 CPS file'. On p.42, A.2 ties the same source to the April 1971 CPS ('represented in the 1971 CPS'), and A.4 (p.44) says 'our 1971 CPS file'. No 1973 CPS file is described anywhere. The year is inconsistent, and only the authors can say which is right.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label "As is visible in Panel A, task changes on the extensive margin attributable to computerization explain 1.8 percentage points" — the percentage-point figures (1.75; 0.28+0.87+0.88) are in Table 10 Panel B, not Panel A.
  • p. 32 Section 6, last paragraph
    As is visible in Panel A, task changes on the extensive margin attributable to computerization explain 1.8 percentage points
  • p. 32 Section 6, paragraph after caveats
    As is visible in Panel A, task changes on the extensive margin attributable to computerization
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel B, All tasks, CPS 80-98
    1.75

Judge's note: The preceding sentence on p032 says Panel A tabulates the task changes ΔT and Panel B converts them into percentage points of college employment. In Table 10 (p058), Panel A has only task-unit changes (e.g. 0.359), while Panel B has CPS 80-98 All tasks = 1.75 and NIPA 0.28, 0.87 and 0.88, which sum to about 2.0 (the figure on p033). The pointer should be Panel B.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label "relationship between relative wages (w_ct/w_ht) and relative supplies (w_ct/w_ht)" — relative supplies should be (N_ct/N_ht).
  • p. 34 Text before equation (17)
    relative supplies (w_ct/w_ht)
  • p. 34 Text introducing eq. (17)
    relative wages (w_ct/w_ht) and relative supplies (w_ct/w_ht)
  • p. 34 text before Eq. (17)
    relative supplies (wct/wht)

Judge's note: The p034 image shows w_ct/w_ht printed twice. Eq. (17) right below uses ln(N_ct/N_ht) for relative supplies, so the second ratio is mislabelled.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label Appendix A.4: "the 1991 Revised Fourth Edition of the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (available in electronic form as National Academy of Sciences, 1981)" — the NAS 1981 entry is "Fourth Edition Dictionary of DOT Scores for 1970 Census Categories".
  • p. 43 Data Appendix A.4
    (available in electronic form as National Academy of Sciences, 1981)
  • p. 40 References
    Fourth Edition Dictionary of DOT Scores for 1970 Census Categories
  • p. 43 Data Appendix A.4
    available in electronic form as National Academy of Sciences, 1981

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: The p043 image shows the citation as quoted. In the reference list (crop from p040), NAS 1981 is the Fourth Edition (1977) DOT scores for 1970 Census categories (ICPSR #7845), and a 1981 document cannot contain the 1991 revision. The reference list also has a separate U.S. Department of Labor 1991 DOT entry, so this citation looks wrong. Only the authors can say what the intended electronic source is.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label The Table 2 note says "n is 140 consistent 3-digit CIC occupations", but the observations are the 140 consistent CIC industries.
  • p. 50 Table 2 note
    n is 140 consistent 3-digit CIC occupations

Judge's note: Confirmed in the image of p. 50. The dependent variable is industry computer use, the same note refers to 'DOT industry means', and the text (p. 14), A.3 and the Table 5/7 notes all say 140 consistent CIC industries.

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Reference or label Table 8 is titled 'Dependent Variable: 10 x (Annualized Within-Industry Change in DOT Task Measure)' and its note says the left column 'displays the annualized change measure', yet its entries are about 1.8 × the 10×annualized values in Table 7 (e.g. 0.152 vs 0.082), so they read as total 1980-98 changes.
  • p. 56 Table 8 title and note
    Dependent Variable: 10 x (Annualized Within-Industry Change in DOT Task Measure)
  • p. 55 Table 7 Panel A, Mean ∆
    0.082

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Table 8 'Overall change 80-98' is 0.152, 0.388, -0.321, -0.143, -0.045. Table 7 Panel A Mean Δ is 0.082, 0.212, -0.177, -0.079, -0.026, so the ratio is about 1.8 in each column. The 'Due to computerization' entries equal β × 0.198 × 1.8 exactly in all five columns. The percentage columns are unaffected. The unit label in the title and note does not match the scale of the entries.

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Reference or label Table 8 note says the computerization component 'is calculated using regression estimates from Table 7 and Appendix Table 6', but the paper has no Appendix Table 6; the education-group estimates are in Appendix Table 4.
  • p. 56 Table 8 note
    using regression estimates from Table 7 and Appendix Table 6
  • p. 56 Table 8 note
    regression estimates from Table 7 and Appendix Table 6
  • p. 62 Appendix Table 4
    Appendix Table 4. OLS Estimates of the Impact of Industry Computerization on Industry
  • p. 56 Table 8 footnote
    Table 7 and Appendix Table 6

Judge's note: The appendix tables in the file are 1-4 (pp59-62). Footnote 39 (p28) says the estimates for the other education groups 'are found in Appendix Table 4', and Table 8's values reproduce from Appendix Table 4's coefficients. The data appendix also cites a non-existent 'Appendix Table 5' (text line 2473), which suggests the numbering was left over from an earlier draft.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording P.19 says 'while both measures of non-routine cognitive tasks trended upward during the 1960s', but in Table 3 non-routine cognitive/interactive is 2.40 in both 1960 and 1970.
  • p. 19 Section 4a
    while both measures of non-routine cognitive tasks trended upward during the 1960s
  • p. 51 Table 3 Panel A, column 2
    2.40

Judge's note: Table 3 Panel A (p.51): interactive is 2.40 in 1960 and 2.40 in 1970; analytic rises from 3.61 to 3.72. In Table 4 (p.52) the 1960-70 overall shift for interactive is 0.005, against 0.107 for analytic. Only the analytic measure trended upward in the 1960s, so the sentence misdescribes the table it cites.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording P.24 says 'In all cases, the relationship between computerization and the composite task measure is not statistically significant during the 1960s and becomes statistically and economically significant in subsequent decades', but several post-1960s estimates in Appendix Table 3 are not significant.
  • p. 24 Section c
    In all cases, the relationship between computerization and the composite task measure is not statistically significant during the 1960s and becomes statistically and economically significant in subsequent decades.
  • p. 61 Appendix Table 3
    0.157

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Appendix Table 3 (p.61), 1980-90: NR analytic 0.157 (0.130), NR interactive 0.112 (0.120), routine cognitive -0.106 (0.097), NR manual 0.138 (0.093); 1990-98: routine cognitive -0.181 (0.116). All have |t|<2. The next sentence concedes inconsistencies only for the 1970s, so 'in all cases' overstates the 1980s and 1990s results as well.

Second check: another model agreed

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33 minor (typos and the like; most checked by the judge only)
Reference or label The Section 5 introduction says 'In the concluding section of the paper, we collect these strands to quantify the contribution...', but that quantification is in Section 6; the Conclusion is Section 7.
  • p. 27 Section 5 introduction
    In the concluding section of the paper, we collect these strands to quantify

Judge's note: P.27 (paper p.25) has the sentence. Section 6 'Computers, task structure, and the demand for college educated labor' does the demand-shift calculations. Section 7 'Conclusion' (p.36) is one qualitative paragraph. 'Concluding section' may be meant loosely as the last analytic section, but the pointer is imprecise.

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Reference or label Data Appendix A.2 cites "Priebe and Greene (1972)", but the reference entry is "Priebe, J.A., J. Heinkel, and S. Greene. 1972." (three authors).
  • p. 43 Data Appendix A.2
    Priebe and Greene (1972)
  • p. 40 References
    Priebe, J.A., J. Heinkel, and S. Greene. 1972.

Judge's note: Both page images checked. The in-text citation leaves out the middle author, Heinkel, who is listed in the reference entry on p. 40. A short form such as 'Priebe et al. (1972)' would match the entry. The reference itself is correctly identified, so this is minor.

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Reference or label A.4 says "We then calculated DOT means by 1970 and 1980 COC occupations and gender using a procedure identical to that described in A.3". That procedure is described in A.2; A.3 covers industry-level means.
  • p. 44 Data Appendix A.4
    using a procedure identical to that described in A.3

Judge's note: A.2 (pp. 42–43) builds the DOT means by 1970 COC and gender (822 means) and by 1980 COC and gender. A.3 assigns those means to Census/CPS observations and aggregates them to industry and education cells. The pointer should be A.2, though A.3 is loosely related, so this is minor.

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Wording Section 6 says the education model uses "occupational task inputs measured by the 1970 DOT", but the paper's DOT sources are the "Fourth (1977) Edition and Revised Fourth (1991) edition".
  • p. 31 Section 6, before eq. (14)
    function of occupational task inputs measured by the 1970 DOT
  • p. 14 Section 3
    Fourth (1977) Edition and Revised Fourth (1991) edition

Judge's note: Page 31 prints '1970 DOT'. Page 14 names only the 1977 and 1991 editions, and elsewhere the text refers to '1977 DOT measures'. The Table 10 note and footnote 42 say the regression uses the 1970 Census, and the NAS (1981) source gives Fourth Edition DOT scores for 1970 Census categories. So '1970 DOT' is probably shorthand for 1977 DOT scores on 1970 Census occupations, but as printed it names an edition the paper does not use.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording P.20 says routine cognitive and routine manual tasks were 'both increasing during the 1960s, prior to commencing a decline in the 1970s', but routine manual does not decline in the 1970s in Table 3 (3.90 in both 1970 and 1980) or Table 4 (overall 1970-80 shift +0.014).
  • p. 20 Section 4a
    prior to commencing a decline in the 1970s
  • p. 52 Table 4 Panel A, 1970-80, Routine Manual
    0.014

Judge's note: Table 3 (p.51): routine manual is 3.90 in 1970 and 3.90 in 1980. Routine cognitive does fall, from 4.70 to 4.61, although Table 4's overall 1970-80 figure for it is 0.000. Only the within-industry components are negative in 1970-80 (RC -0.033, RM -0.010). The wording overstates the aggregate pattern for routine manual tasks.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording P.20 says the two routine task measures 'show a U-shaped relationship to education', but Appendix Table 2 shows them peaking at high school graduates, which is an inverted U.
  • p. 20 Section 4a
    show a U-shaped relationship to education

Judge's note: Appendix Table 2 (p.60), by education group (dropout, HS graduate, some college, college plus): routine cognitive 4.93, 5.30, 4.87, 2.86; routine manual 3.72, 4.09, 4.02, 3.57. Both peak in the middle, so 'U-shaped' gets the shape backwards. The same sentence says correctly that HS graduates perform more of both tasks, which limits the harm.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording The Table 7 and Appendix Table 4 notes define the regressor as "ten times the change in industry computer use frequency from the 1984 and 1997 CPS (weighted mean 0.198)". A mean of 0.198 fits ten times the annualized change (≈0.256/13×10), not ten times the change (≈2.5).
  • p. 55 Table 7 note
    measured as ten times the change in industry computer use frequency from the 1984 and 1997 CPS (weighted mean 0.198)
  • p. 53 Table 5 note
    Weighted mean of ∆ computer use 1984 - 1997 is 0.252
  • p. 22 Section 4c
    rising from 25 to 51 percent between 1984 and 1997

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Table 5 gives the 1984–97 change as 0.252, and the text says 25 to 51 percent. Ten times that would be about 2.5. The Table 7 identity holds with 0.198: analytic 0.004+0.400×0.198 = 0.083 (0.082), so the regressor is evidently ten times the annualized change and the note leaves out 'annualized'. The second reviewer point (26 vs 25.2 points) compares an aggregate worker share with an employment-weighted industry mean; these are different quantities and that part is rejected.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording P.30 says the cognitive/interactive shift 'was significantly greater in more rapidly computerizing industries', but the equation (13) / Table 9 analysis is across occupations.
  • p. 30 Section 5b
    was significantly greater in more rapidly computerizing industries
  • p. 30 Section 5b
    significantly greater in more rapidly computerizing industries

Judge's note: Equation (13) on p.29 regresses within-occupation task change on occupational computer penetration ΔC_m. The surrounding sentences on p.30 say 'rapidly computerizing occupations'. 'Industries' misdescribes the unit of analysis here.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording Eq. (14) N_c^m = α + T_mλ + ε_m, but the text defines "T_m is a column vector" and λ as "a conformable row vector of coefficients", so T_mλ as written is an outer product, not a scalar.
  • p. 31 Equation (14) and definitions
    T_m is a column vector
  • p. 31 Definitions after eq. (14)
    T_m is a column vector containing the DOT means of our routine and non-routine skill measures, and λ is a conformable row vector

Judge's note: Page image p031 shows the equation and definitions exactly as quoted. N_c^m is a scalar share, so the vector orientations should be swapped (T_m a row vector, λ a column vector). The intended inner product is obvious, so this is a minor notational inconsistency.

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Wording Table 10 Panel C is headed '100 x Annual shifts', but its 70-98 (9.95) and 80-98 (6.69) entries are sums of the period entries (3.26+4.60+2.09; 4.60+2.09). The text calls them 'approximately 10 log points annually over 1970 – 1998 and 7 log points over 1980 – 1998' and compares '2.8 log points annually' with '6.7 log points over this period'.
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel C
    C. 100 x Annual shifts in log (College/Non-College) demand
  • p. 34 Section 6 text
    grew by approximately 10 log points annually over 1970 – 1998
  • p. 34 Section 6, text before eq. (19)
    grew by approximately 10 log points annually over 1970 – 1998 and 7 log points over 1980 – 1998
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel C, C.E.S. estimated demand shift
    9.95

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Checked Panel C (p58) and the text on p34-35. The multi-period figures are exact sums of the per-period entries, so they cannot all be annual rates. The text applies 'annually' to one and 'over this period' to the other. The ratios (2.77/6.69, 2.86/9.95) are internally consistent. Only the unit wording and the label are ambiguous.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording Appendix Table 4 note (p. 62) says "Estimates are weighted by mean industry share of total employment (in FTEs) in 1980 and 1988." The table covers 1980-98 and uses CPS MORG 1980 and 1998, so the second weighting year is evidently 1998.
  • p. 62 Appendix Table 4 note
    in 1980 and 1988
  • p. 62 Appendix Table 4 note
    weighted by mean industry share of total employment (in FTEs) in 1980 and 1988
  • p. 55 Table 7 note
    over the endpoints of the years used to form the dependent variable

Judge's note: I checked the page image of p. 62. The title reads '1980 - 98'. The same note says 'Industries that did not have employment ... in both 1980 and 1998 were excluded' and 'Data sources are CPS MORG 1980 and 1998'. The table uses no 1988 sample. The Table 7 note on p. 55, for the same regression design, weights 'over the endpoints of the years used to form the dependent variable', and those endpoints are 1980 and 1998. A search of the text shows that 1988 appears nowhere else except in the Zuboff (1988) citation. So '1988' is a misprint for '1998' with an obvious fix. It is a wrong year in a methods note, so it is more than cosmetic, but it does not affect any reported estimate.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording Table 10 Panel A NIPA entries for '5. Non-Routine Manual' (0.019, 0.070, 0.074) cannot be reproduced from Table 6 as the other four rows can (β × change in mean log(CI/L) relative to 1960-70, with 1990-98 scaled by 0.8).
  • p. 58 Table 10 Panel A, row 5, NIPA columns
    0.019

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Table 6 (p54) gives weighted mean log(CI/L) of -0.480, -0.379, -0.172 and -0.091. The printed '-0.91' is evidently -0.091, which is what reproduces the other rows. Rows 1-4 reproduce exactly from the odd-column coefficients (e.g. 0.854×0.101 = 0.086; 0.228×0.389×0.8 = 0.071). For NRM, column 9 (0.254) gives 0.026, 0.078 and 0.079, and column 10 (0.201) gives 0.020, 0.062 and 0.063; neither matches 0.019, 0.070 and 0.074. The paper does not state the formula explicitly, so this is put as a query about how the row was computed.

Second check: another model agreed

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Typo Introduction, p. 3: "computers substitute for less educated workers in the performance of simple tasks or and/or complement the performance of more educated workers" has a doubled conjunction ('or and/or').
  • p. 3 Introduction, para 2
    simple tasks or and/or complement
  • p. 3
    simple tasks or and/or complement the performance

Judge's note: The page-3 crop shows 'simple tasks or and/or complement' as printed. One of the conjunctions should be deleted.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Footnote 4 spells the author "Casselli (1999)", but the reference entry is "Caselli, Francesco. 1999."
  • p. 5 Footnote 4
    Casselli (1999)
  • p. 38 References
    Caselli, Francesco. 1999.
  • p. 37 References
    Berman, Eli and Stephen. 2000.
  • p. 38 reference list
    Christoper Taber

Judge's note: Both crops checked: footnote 4 on p. 5 has 'Casselli' and the p. 38 reference has 'Caselli'. The extracted text also shows two related slips in the references: 'Berman, Eli and Stephen. 2000' (the second author's surname is missing) and 'Christoper Taber' in the Heckman et al. entry. The Bryjolfsson spelling is handled under C008.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Footnote 6: "The Encyclopedia Brittanica (2000) defines a computer program..." misspells Britannica, and the source has no reference-list entry.
  • p. 5 Footnote 6
    Encyclopedia Brittanica (2000)
  • p. 5
    The Encyclopedia Brittanica (2000) defines a computer program

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: the correct spelling is 'Britannica'. The p. 5 crop shows 'Brittanica' in italics. A text search finds no Encyclopedia entry in the reference list.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Misspellings: "is Leontif (i.e., fixed coefficients)" (should be Leontief); "Encyclopedia Brittanica" (Britannica, fn 6); "Bryjolfsson and Hitt (2000)" in fn 10 and the reference list (the paper spells it Brynjolfsson elsewhere).
  • p. 35 Section 6, first line
    Leontif
  • p. 35 Section 6, before eq. (19)
    the relative demand for college equivalents is Leontif
  • p. 5 footnote 6
    Encyclopedia Brittanica
  • p. 7 footnote 10
    Bryjolfsson and Hitt (2000)

Judge's note: All three seen in the images: 'Leontif' on p035, 'Brittanica' in fn 6 on p005, 'Bryjolfsson' in fn 10 on p007 and in the reference entry on p038. The same author is spelled 'Brynjolfsson' on p005 and in the Bresnahan et al. entry. 'Panels A tabulates' is handled under C034.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Footnote 10 ("Weizenbaum (1976) and Bryjolfsson and Hitt (2000)") and the reference entry "Bryjolfsson, Erik and Lorin M. Hitt. 2000." misspell Brynjolfsson.
  • p. 7 Footnote 10
    Bryjolfsson and Hitt (2000)
  • p. 38 References
    Bryjolfsson, Erik and Lorin M. Hitt. 2000.
  • p. 7
    Weizenbaum (1976) and Bryjolfsson and Hitt (2000)

Judge's note: Elsewhere the paper spells the name 'Brynjolfsson' (fns 4 and 14; the Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson and Hitt reference). Both images show 'Bryjolfsson'.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Computer investment is written 'CI_jkt' in the text on p.25 but 'CI_kτ' in equation (12) on p.24.
  • p. 25 Text after equation (12)
    CI_jkt
  • p. 24 Equation (12)
    β1CI_kτ

Judge's note: P.25 reads 'the industry computer investment measure, CI_jkt', while equation (12) on p.24 has β1 CI_kτ. Industry computer investment does not vary by task j, so the subscripts are inconsistent notation.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo "Panels A tabulates estimates of ΔT̂_kτ" — should read "Panel A tabulates".
  • p. 32 Section 6
    Panels A tabulates
  • p. 32 Section 6, caveats paragraph
    Panels A tabulates estimates

Judge's note: Seen on the p032 page image. The subject and verb disagree in number.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Eq. (19) "ln(1+[ΔN_cτ/N_cτ] − ln(1+[ΔN_hτ/N_hτ]" has two unclosed parentheses.
  • p. 35 Equation (19)
    ln(1+[ΔN_cτ / N_cτ ] − ln(1+[ΔN_hτ / N_hτ ]

Judge's note: The p035 image shows both ln( terms with no closing parenthesis.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo "how computerization and associated organizational changes alters the composition of job tasks" — should be "alter".
  • p. 36 Section 7 Conclusion
    computerization and associated organizational changes alters the composition of job tasks

Judge's note: Seen on the p036 page image (Conclusion). The verb does not agree with its compound subject.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Reference list: "Bartel, Anne P. Ichniowski, Casey and Kathryn Shaw. 2000." (garbled author punctuation; 'Anne' vs 'Ann P.' in the next two entries) and "Christoper Taber" (Christopher).
  • p. 37 References
    Bartel, Anne P. Ichniowski, Casey and Kathryn Shaw. 2000.
  • p. 38 References
    Christoper Taber

Judge's note: Both are seen in the images: the Bartel entry on p037 and the Heckman, Lochner and Taber entry on p038. These are cosmetic only.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Data Appendix copy-edits: "the 1970 COC-DOT means describe above" (should be 'described', A.2, p. 43) and "Census's Bureau's education variable" (should be 'Census Bureau's', A.1, p. 42).
  • p. 43 Data Appendix A.2
    means describe above
  • p. 42 Data Appendix A.1
    Census’s Bureau’s

Judge's note: Both phrases appear exactly so in the page images of pp. 42–43. They are plain typos.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Data Appendix typos: "(In almost very case, only the first eigenvector was above one.)" ('every'; it is the eigenvalue, not the eigenvector, that exceeds one) and "providing140 consistent CIC industries" (missing space).
  • p. 44 Data Appendix A.5
    In almost very case
  • p. 42 A.1
    Census’s Bureau’s education variable
  • p. 43 A.3
    providing140 consistent
  • p. 43 A.3
    providing140 consistent CIC industries

Judge's note: Both are visible in the page images of pp. 43–44. The 'Census's Bureau's' and 'describe above' items in this cluster are the same as C047 and are confirmed there. 'Eigenvector ... above one' is a wording slip: the Kaiser criterion refers to eigenvalues.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Table 2 row labels (1) and (2) read "1959 DOT Industy Task Measure" ('Industry').
  • p. 50 Table 2 rows (1) and (2)
    1959 DOT Industy
  • p. 50 Table 2 rows (1) and (2)
    1959 DOT Industy Task Measure

Judge's note: The misspelling appears twice in the image of p. 50.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Table 6 column headers number both the analytic and the interactive task measures "1." ("1. Δ Non-Routine Cognitive/ Interactive"); the second should be "2.".
  • p. 54 Table 6 column headers
    1. ∆ Non-Routine Cognitive/ Interactive
  • p. 54 Table 6 column headers
    1. Δ Non-Routine Cognitive/ Interactive

Judge's note: The image of p. 54 shows headers 1, 1, 3, 4, 5. Every other table numbers the interactive measure 2. The column content is clear from its name, so this is cosmetic.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo The Table 6 note reads "log capital/FTE ratio over deacde" ('decade').
  • p. 54 Table 6 note
    over deacde

Judge's note: Visible in the image of p. 54.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Misspellings in the table notes: 'Higherst level' (Appendix Table 1), 'over deacde' (Table 6 note) and 'calcuations' (Table 10 note); 'Capital Intensivity' (Table 6 title) is non-standard.
  • p. 59 Appendix Table 1, EYEHAND row
    Higherst level
  • p. 54 Table 6 note
    over deacde
  • p. 56 Table 8 note
    displays displays
  • p. 58 Table 10 note
    calcuations

Judge's note: Each is visible in the images: p59, p54 and p58. The duplicated 'displays displays' that this cluster also lists is covered by C064.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Table 8 note has a duplicated word: 'The left hand column displays displays the annualized change measure'.
  • p. 56 Table 8 note
    displays displays
  • p. 56
    displays displays the
  • p. 56
    measure. The left hand column displays displays the annualized chan

Judge's note: The duplicated word is visible in the page image of the Table 8 note (p56).

Second check: code check

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Typo Table 9 column headers read '4. Δ Routine Motor' and '5. Δ Non-Routine Motor', whereas every other table labels these measures 'Routine Manual' and 'Non-Routine Manual'.
  • p. 57 Table 9 column headers
    4. ∆ Routine Motor
  • p. 57 Table 9 column headers
    4. Δ Routine Motor
  • p. 57 Table 9 column headers
    5. Δ Non-Routine Motor
  • p. 57 Table 9 column headers
    5. ∆ Non-Routine Motor

Judge's note: Confirmed in the p57 image. The text uses 'motor' as a synonym twice ('non-routine motor tasks', p15 text; 'routine motor tasks'), so the meaning is clear. The labels are still inconsistent with Tables 3-8 and 10.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Table 10 Panel A numbers '1. N.R. Cognitive/Interactive' and '2. N.R. Cognitive/Analytic', reversing the order used in all other tables (1 = Analytic, 2 = Interactive).
  • p. 58 Table 10 panel A
    1. N.R. Cognitive/Interactive

Judge's note: Confirmed in the p58 image. The values match the labels (interactive 0.359 and analytic 0.143, as in Table 8 columns 2 and 1), so only the numbering and order are inconsistent.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Appendix Table 1 numbers the third variable '2. Set Limits, Tolerances, or Standards (STS)', so the rows run 1, 2, 2, 4, 5; this one should be 3.
  • p. 59 Appendix Table 1, third row
    2. Set Limits, Tolerances, or Standards (STS)

Judge's note: The duplicated '2.' is visible in the p59 image.

Second check: none (judge only)

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Typo Appendix Table 3 panel 2 is labelled '2. Δ Non-Routine Cognitive/' with 'Interactive' missing.
  • p. 61 Appendix Table 3, panel 2 label
    2. ∆ Non-Routine Cognitive/

Judge's note: In the p61 image the label ends at 'Cognitive/'. Panel 1 reads 'Cognitive/ Analytic', so panel 2 can be identified only by its number.

Second check: none (judge only)

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