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Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics

2009 · paper · Economics

A user guide to regression discontinuity designs for empirical researchers. It covers the basic theory, when the design is valid given economic incentives, why it is considered quasi-experimental, and estimation methods and limitations, with examples from research.

Checked: PDF from nber.org, fetched 5 Oct 2026. Page numbers are those of that PDF.

4 findings

Substance Text (printed p.35): "the cross-validation procedure for the data to the right of the cutoff point and for the entire range suggests using a very wide bin (0.049)" and "two local minima at 0.021 and 0.049 that correspond to the optimal bandwidths on the left and right hand side of the cutoff". Table 1 Panel A, Win next election, prints Left 0.049, Right 0.021, Both 0.049.
  • p. 37 Section 4.1, first and second paragraphs
    procedure for the data to the right of the cutoff point and for the entire range suggests using a very wide bin
  • p. 37 Section 4.1, second paragraph
    two local minima at 0.021 and 0.049 that correspond to the optimal bandwidths on the left and right hand side of the cutoff
  • p. 90 Table 1, Panel A, Win next election column
    0.049
  • p. 37 Sec 4.1, paragraphs after Table 1 discussion
    for the data to the right of the cutoff point and for the entire range suggests using a very wide bin (0.049)

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: I checked the page 37 text and the Table 1 image on page 90. The text puts 0.049 on the right and 0.021 on the left; the table has the reverse. The text is internally consistent, so either the table rows or the text are swapped. Only the authors can say which.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label In model (6), γ is both the effect of T on Y ("Y = Tγ + Wδ1 + U1") and the coefficient on W in "T = Dφ + Wγ + U2". "If γ = 0 and U2 = 0" then refers to the second use, while (7) identifies the first.
  • p. 26 Equation (6) and the following text
    T = Dφ +Wγ +U2
  • p. 26 Text after equation (6)
    If γ = 0 and U2 = 0, then the model collapses to a “sharp” RD design

Judge's note: Checked p.26 (printed p.24). The same symbol γ appears in both equations of the displayed system. The collapse condition makes sense only for the W coefficient in the T equation (then T = Dφ, a sharp design). Equation (7) and footnote 19 use γ as the causal effect. This is a notation clash in one displayed system; renaming the second coefficient fixes it.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label Reference entries give wrong journal names: Imbens & Angrist 'Econometrics, 1994, 61(2), 467–476.'; Asadullah 'Applied Economic Letters'; Ding & Lehrer 'Review of Economic and Statistics'.
  • p. 86 Reference list
    Econometrics, 1994, 61(2), 467–476.
  • p. 83 References, Asadullah
    Applied Economic Letters
  • p. 85 References, Ding and Lehrer
    Review of Economic and Statistics

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: the Imbens–Angrist LATE paper appeared in Econometrica, vol. 62(2), pp. 467–475. The page 86 image prints 'Econometrics, 1994, 61(2), 467–476.' The same reference list spells 'Econometrica' correctly elsewhere (e.g. White 1980), so 'Econometrics' as a journal name for this paper is clearly a slip. The volume and page range can only be checked against outside sources. The page 83 image prints 'Applied Economic Letters' (Asadullah), and the page 85 image prints 'Review of Economic and Statistics' (Ding & Lehrer), although Pence on page 88 has 'Review of Economics and Statistics'. The Ding & Lehrer item also appears in C048.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label Edmonds, Mammen and Miller reference: "Journal of Human Resources, 2005, 20(1) (10306), 186–207." gives volume 20 for a 2005 issue and contains a stray "(10306)".
  • p. 85 Reference list
    Journal of Human Resources, 2005, 20(1) (10306), 186–207.
  • p. 84 Reference list, Cascio and Lewis
    February 2006, 41(2) (11113), 294–318.

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: JHR volume numbering (2005 = vol. 40). The paper's own reference list supports the point: Jacob and Lefgren JHR 2004 = vol. 39 and Cascio and Lewis JHR 2006 = vol. 41, so vol. 20 for 2005 is inconsistent. The stray '(10306)' is visible in the p.85 crop.

Second check: another model agreed

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34 minor (typos and the like; most checked by the judge only)
Reference or label The text cites "Van der Klaauw (2008a)" and "Van der Klaauw (2008b)", but the two 2008 entries in the reference list (Title I, Journal of Econometrics; survey, Labour) carry no a/b suffixes.
  • p. 4 Footnote 2
    two recent overview papers by Van der Klaauw (2008b)
  • p. 89 Reference list, Van der Klaauw entries
    Approach,” Labour, June

Judge's note: Checked reference list p.89 (printed p.87). Both Van der Klaauw entries are dated only "February 2008" and "June 2008", with no suffix. Footnote 2 (p.4) cites 2008b, and Table 4 and Section 6 cite 2008a. The mapping can be inferred from context but is not stated.

Second check: another model agreed

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Reference or label After Eq. (4), "We return to how to implement this in practice in Section 4.4". The implementation of covariate adjustment (residualizing, adding W) is in Section 4.5, "Incorporating Covariates in Estimation".
  • p. 21 Section 3.2.3, after Eq. (4)
    We return to how to implement this in practice in Section 4.4.
  • p. 55 Section 4.5 heading
    Incorporating Covariates in Estimation

Judge's note: Checked p.21 and the text of Sections 4.4 and 4.5. Section 4.4 is titled "Implementing Empirical Tests of RD Validity and Using Covariates", and its intro says it covers incorporating covariates, but its subsections only cover validity tests. Section 4.5 contains the implementation and refers back to equation (4), and later pointers cite Section 4.5. The pointer is partly defensible, so this is minor.

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Reference or label Text and Table 4 cite "Card et al. (2009a)/(2009b)", "Black et al. (2007a)/(2007b)" and "Van der Klaauw (2008a)/(2008b)", but the reference list gives these entries plain years (e.g. "American Economic Review, forthcoming 2009.") with no a/b suffixes.
  • p. 69 Table 4, Health
    Card et al. (2009a)
  • p. 84 Reference list, Card entries
    American Economic Review, forthcoming 2009.
  • p. 83 Reference list, Black et al. entries
    Working Paper, University of Michigan 2007.
  • p. 89 Reference list, Van der Klaauw 2008 entries
    Labour, June 2008, 22 (2), 219–245.

Judge's note: Reference list images on pp.83, 84 and 89 show the Card-Dobkin-Maestas 2009 AER and QJE entries, the Black et al. 2007 WP and AER entries, and the Van der Klaauw 2008 J. Econometrics and Labour entries, all without suffixes. The text uses suffixes (main.txt lines 118, 1595, 2348, 2368, 2540, 2545, 2826). The reader can mostly infer the mapping from context (e.g. Table 4 'utilization' = AER), so this is minor. The Jacob and Lefgren point in reviewer note 1 is not a defect: the list has '2004' and '2004a', matching the text's 2004/2004a.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording The introduction describes Black (1999) as using "school district boundaries", but elsewhere the paper describes attendance-zone boundaries ("school attendance boundaries", "Inclusion in school attendance region", "attendance district boundary").
  • p. 3 Introduction, para 2
    exploited the presence of discontinuities at the geographical level (school district boundaries)
  • p. 76 Section 6.3.2
    Black (1999) and Bayer et al. (2007) examine housing prices on either side of school attendance boundaries
  • p. 65 Table 4, Black (1999) row
    Inclusion in school attendance region

Judge's note: Checked p.3: the intro reads "(school district boundaries)". Section 6.3.2 on p.76 says "school attendance boundaries". The Table 4 row for Black (1999) on p.65 says "Inclusion in school attendance region". The quotation on pp.74-75 refers to "attendance district boundary". Probably loose wording, but the intro is inconsistent with the rest of the paper.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording The introduction lists "the effects of Medicaid on health outcomes", but the paper's only Medicaid study (Card and Shore-Sheppard 2004, Table 4) has "Overall insurance coverage" as its outcome. The health-outcome studies in the table concern Medicare.
  • p. 3 Introduction, para 2
    the effects of Medicaid on health outcomes
  • p. 69 Table 4, Health section, Card and Shore-Sheppard (2004)
    Overall insurance coverage

Only the authors can say what is right here.

Judge's note: Checked p.3 and the Health section of Table 4 on p.69. Card and Shore-Sheppard (2004): Medicaid, outcome "Overall insurance coverage". Card et al. (2009a/b): Medicare, outcomes utilization and mortality. Nothing in the paper supports Medicaid effects on health outcomes. The authors may mean Medicare, or studies they do not list, so this is a query for them.

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Wording "it is not possible to observe units with either D = 0 or D = 1 for a given value of the assignment variable X": read literally, this says neither is observable. The intended meaning is "both D = 0 and D = 1".
  • p. 11 Section 2.2, overlap paragraph
    it is not possible to observe units with either D = 0 or D = 1 for a given value of the assignment variable X

Judge's note: Checked p.11. The next sentence ("we cannot observe treatment and non-treatment for the same value of X") gives the intended meaning. The sentence as written says something different, though the meaning is clear from context.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording Section 3.5.2 Heckit expressions and Eq. (8) write "E [U|W = w,V ≥ −wδ2]" / "V < −wδ2", dropping the cutoff c that model (2) (D = 1[X ≥ c], X = Wδ2 + V) and Section 3.5.1 ("V ≥ c − wδ2") carry.
  • p. 30 Section 3.5.2, Heckit equations and Eq. (8)
    E [U|W = w,V ≥−wδ2]
  • p. 28 Section 3.5.1 equation
    E [U|W = w,V ≥c−wδ2]

Judge's note: Model (2) on printed p.~11 defines D = 1[X ≥ c] with X = Wδ2 + V, so D = 1 iff V ≥ c − Wδ2. Section 3.5.1 (PDF p.28) writes c − wδ2. The Heckit equations and Eq. (8) on PDF p.30 write −wδ2. I found no statement that normalises c to 0 in this section (the normalisation on p.36 concerns the voting example). It is a notational inconsistency; the identification argument is unaffected once c is restored.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording Text (printed p.44): "the suggested bandwidth ranges from 0.14 to 0.28", but Table 3 includes a rule-of-thumb right-side value of 0.130 (Win next election).
  • p. 46 Section 4.3.1, paragraph on Table 3
    the suggested bandwidth ranges from 0.14 to 0.28
  • p. 93 Table 3, Panel A, Right, Win next election
    0.130

Judge's note: Table 3 image: the values are 0.162, 0.208, 0.180, 0.164, 0.130, 0.141, 0.192, 0.282, 0.282, 0.247, 0.141 and 0.172; the minimum is 0.130. The 'Both' rows (0.141 to 0.282) fit the stated range, but the text does not restrict the claim to them.

Second check: another model agreed

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Wording The Chile class-size sorting study is cited as "Urquiola and Verhoogen (2007)" throughout the text (Secs 6.2.1, 7, fn 51) but as "Urquiola and Verhoogen (2009)" in Table 4.
  • p. 72 Section 6.2.1
    Urquiola (2006), and Urquiola and Verhoogen (2007)
  • p. 78 Section 7, Sorting bullet
    A recent analysis that illustrates this standard is that of Urquiola and Verhoogen (2007)
  • p. 66 Table 4, Education
    Urquiola and Verhoogen (2009)
  • p. 78 Section 7, Sorting and Manipulation bullet
    Urquiola and Verhoogen (2007)

Judge's note: Both the July 2007 working paper and the 2009 AER article are in the reference list, so neither citation is broken. The point is that one study is cited inconsistently across text and table. Verified on page images p.66, p.72 and p.78.

Second check: another model agreed

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Typo Footnote 5: "where it is argued that is is more helpful to view models" should read "it is".
  • p. 6 Footnote 5
    where it is argued that is is more helpful
  • p. 6 Footnote 5
    can simultaneously viewed as solutions
  • p. 6 Footnote 5
    where it is argued that is is more helpful to view

Judge's note: The duplication "is is" is visible in footnote 5 on the page image (p.6). The missing "be" that one reviewer also raised is handled separately as C007.

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Typo Footnote 5: "the same least squares estimator can simultaneously viewed as solutions to" is missing "be".
  • p. 6 Footnote 5, last sentence
    the same least squares estimator can simultaneously viewed as solutions to
  • p. 6 footnote 5
    can simultaneously viewed as solutions

Judge's note: Visible in footnote 5 on the page image (p.6).

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Typo Powell (1994) reference title is truncated: 'Powell, James L., “Estimation of Semiparametric,” in Robert Engle and Daniel McFadden, eds., Handbook of Econometrics'.
  • p. 88 Reference list
    “Estimation of Semiparametric,”
  • p. 88 Reference list, Powell entry
    Powell, James L., “Estimation of Semiparametric,”
  • p. 6 Footnote 5
    See Section 1.2 of Powell (1994)

Judge's note: The page 88 image shows the title as typeset, ending at the adjective 'Semiparametric' with no noun, so this is not an extraction artefact. The likely full title, 'Estimation of Semiparametric Models', comes from outside knowledge, but the truncation is plain from the page itself. Footnote 5 cites this entry.

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Typo Section 2.3: "As we disucss throughout the paper" should read "discuss".
  • p. 12 Section 2.3, first paragraph
    As we disucss throughout the paper
  • p. 12
    As we disucss throughout the paper, however, we do not

Judge's note: The misspelling is visible on the page image (p.12).

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Typo Section 3.2.2: "Perfroming this kind of test" should read "Performing".
  • p. 20 Section 3.2.2, first line
    Perfroming this kind of test
  • p. 20 Section 3.2.2, third paragraph
    values of the observalbe characteristics
  • p. 20
    Perfroming this kind of test is arguably more important

Judge's note: Visible on the page image (p.20). The "observalbe" misspelling also listed here is handled in C012.

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Typo Section 3.2.2: "the observalbe characteristics" should read "observable".
  • p. 20 Sec. 3.2.2, last paragraph
    observalbe characteristics
  • p. 20
    observalbe characteristics, some discontinuities in the density of X

Judge's note: Visible on the page image (p.20).

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Typo Lower-case "y" is used for the outcome Y in "has no impact on y except by influencing D" (p.25) and "discontinuity in the relation between y and X" (p.26).
  • p. 26 Text after Eq. (7)
    discontinuity in the relation between y and X
  • p. 25 Section 3.4.1
    has no impact on y except by influencing D

Judge's note: Both are visible in italic lower-case y on the page images. Elsewhere in the same passages the outcome is Y.

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Typo Footnote 22 (printed p.27): "See Hahn (1998) on including covariates directly with nonpaparmetric regression." ('nonpaparmetric' should be 'nonparametric').
  • p. 29 Footnote 22
    nonpaparmetric regression
  • p. 29
    nonpaparmetric regression.

Judge's note: Misspelling visible in the page image crop of footnote 22.

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Typo Section 3.5.1 (printed p.27): "work, however,when W has continuous elements" has no space after the comma.
  • p. 29 Section 3.5.1, first line
    work, however,when W has continuous elements

Judge's note: The page image shows 'however,when' with no space.

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Typo Section 4.1 (printed p.33): "choosing how to the plot the data" (should be 'how to plot the data') and "a range a bandwidths often yield" (should be 'a range of bandwidths').
  • p. 35 Section 4.1
    choosing how to the plot
  • p. 35 Section 4.1
    a range a bandwidths often yield similar values
  • p. 35 Sec. 4.1
    Furthermore, a range a bandwidths often yield
  • p. 35 Sec. 4.1
    choosing how to the plot the data

Judge's note: Both errors are visible in the page image.

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Typo Section 4.1 (printed p.34): "We suggests two such tests.", "a standard F-test with K′ degrees of freedom can used" and "the bin is too wide and that the the mean value of Y" (should be 'We suggest', 'can be used' and 'the').
  • p. 36 Section 4.1
    We suggests two such tests.
  • p. 36 Section 4.1
    degrees of freedom can used
  • p. 36 Section 4.1
    that the the mean value of Y
  • p. 36
    a standard F-test with K′ degrees of freedom can used

Judge's note: All three slips are visible on the page 36 image.

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Typo Section 4.1 (printed p.35): "for the entire date range" (should be 'data range') and "the bin and regression tests suggests than almost all bandwidth of less than 0.05 is acceptable" (should be 'suggest that almost all bandwidths ... are').
  • p. 37 Section 4.1
    for the entire date range
  • p. 37 Section 4.1
    the bin and regression tests suggests than
  • p. 37 first paragraph
    for the entire date range on both the left and right

Judge's note: Both slips are visible on the page 37 image. The same page later says 'entire data range'.

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Typo Footnote 28 (printed p.38): "the bias is of an order of magnitude lower that at the cutoff" ('that' should be 'than').
  • p. 40 Footnote 28
    of magnitude lower that at the cutoff
  • p. 40
    the bias is of an order of magnitude lower that at the cutoff

Judge's note: Visible in the page image crop.

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Typo Section 4.3.1: "One the one hand, using a larger bandwidth" (should be 'On the one hand').
  • p. 43 Sec. 4.3.1
    One the one hand, using a larger bandwidth

Judge's note: Visible in the page image crop ('One the / one hand').

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Typo Sec. 4.4.2 reads "a χ2 test for the discontinuity gaps in all questions being zero"; "questions" should be "equations".
  • p. 54 Sec. 4.4.2, SUR paragraph
    discontinuity gaps in all questions being zero

Judge's note: Page 54 image shows 'all questions being zero' in a sentence about a SUR system where each equation represents a covariate; the following text refers to 'the K equations'. This is a word slip.

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Typo Footnote 43: "which will hold when, for example, when ε is orthogonal to u" has a duplicated "when".
  • p. 56 Footnote 43
    which will hold when, for example, when ε is orthogonal

Judge's note: The duplicated 'when' is visible in the crop of footnote 43 on PDF p.56.

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Typo PDF p.57: footnote 44 "as defined in the preceeding footnotes" (misspelling) and checklist item 1 "The bin widths should as small as possible" (missing "be").
  • p. 57 Footnote 44
    preceeding footnotes
  • p. 57 Checklist item 1
    The bin widths should as small as possible

Judge's note: Both slips are visible on the page image crops of p.57.

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Typo Section 7: "schools receive a fixed payment per student from the government ." has a spurious space before the full stop.
  • p. 78 Section 7, Sorting bullet
    schools receive a fixed payment per student from the government .

Judge's note: The space before the period is visible in the p.78 crop.

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Typo Section 7: "Examples of this kind of testing of the RD design include, Matsudaira (2008)" has a stray comma after "include".
  • p. 79 Section 7, Locally Randomized Experiments bullet
    of testing of the RD design include, Matsudaira (2008)

Judge's note: The comma is visible in the p.79 crop.

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Typo Section 7: "a rough sense of the range of the both the assignment variable and the outcome variable" has an extra "the".
  • p. 80 Section 7, Graphical Analysis bullet
    a rough sense of the range of the both the assignment variable

Judge's note: Visible in the p.80 crop.

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Typo Section 7.1: "but instead possesses and a slightly noisy measure of the variable" has a stray "and".
  • p. 81 Section 7.1, para 1
    but instead possesses and a slightly noisy measure of the variable
  • p. 81
    possesses and a slightly noisy measure of the variable

Judge's note: Visible in the p.81 crops.

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Typo Cascio and Lewis reference: "The Journal of Human Resources, February 2006, 41(2) (11113), 294–318." contains a stray "(11113)".
  • p. 84 Reference list
    February 2006, 41(2) (11113), 294–318.

Judge's note: The stray parenthetical number is visible in the p.84 crop; it looks like a leftover working-paper number. The rest of the entry is not questioned.

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Typo Copy-editing errors in reference list: 'Two Nautral Experi-ments' (Pettersson-Lidbom 2006), 'A Heteroskedasticty-Consistent' (White 1980), 'Review of Economic and Statistics' (Ding & Lehrer 2007), and duplicated issue '124(1) (1), 399–422' (Ferreira & Gyourko 2009).
  • p. 88 Pettersson-Lidbom (2006)
    Evidence from Two Nautral Experi-
  • p. 89 White (1980)
    A Heteroskedasticty-Consistent Covariance Matrix
  • p. 85 Ding and Lehrer (2007)
    Review of Economic and Statistics
  • p. 85 Ferreira and Gyourko (2009)
    2009, 124(1) (1), 399–422.

Judge's note: I confirmed all four in the page images. Page 88 has 'Nautral'. Page 89 has 'Heteroskedasticty' (while 'Heteroskedasticity' is spelled correctly in the same title). Page 85 has 'Review of Economic and Statistics'. Page 85 also has '124(1) (1)', which prints the issue number twice.

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Typo Porter (2003) reference has a missing space: 'Department of Economics, University ofWisconsin'.
  • p. 88 Porter (2003) reference
    University ofWisconsin

Judge's note: The page 88 image shows 'ofWisconsin' run together in italics as typeset.

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Typo 'Figure A4: Cross-validation Function for Local Linear Regression: Winning the Next Election' has no axis titles, whereas Figure A3 labels 'Bandwidth' and 'Cross-validation function'.
  • p. 110 Figure A4
    Figure A4: Cross-validation Function for Local Linear Regression: Winning the Next Election
  • p. 110 Figure A4
    Figure A4: Cross-validation Function for Local Linear Regression:

Judge's note: The upright page 110 image shows only tick values (428–435; 0.00–0.45) with no x or y axis title. The upright page 109 image (Figure A3) shows both axis titles. This is a cosmetic omission; the meaning can be recovered from the caption.

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