Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System
2008 · paper · Earth science
Introduces the term "tipping element" for large Earth-system components that may switch to a different state, and reviews policy-relevant candidates in the climate system. Uses an expert elicitation to rank their sensitivity, and discusses early-warning prospects.
Checked: PDF from europepmc.org, fetched 4 Oct 2026. Page numbers are those of that PDF.
3 findings
Reference or label Ref. 65: "Gupta AK, Anderson DM, Overpeck JT (2003) Nature 431:354–357." The volume number does not fit the year 2003 given the other Nature entries in the same list.
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 65
Gupta AK, Anderson DM, Overpeck JT (2003) Nature 431:354–357.
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the intended article is in Nature volume 421 (January 2003). What can be checked in the files: the entry is printed as quoted (page 8 image), and the paper's own reference list gives Nature 426 for 2003 (ref. 49) and Nature 432 for 2004 (ref. 31), with 419 for 2002 (ref. 42) and 409 for 2001 (refs 27, 43). Since volume numbers rise with time, volume 431 lies between a 2003 volume (426) and a 2004 volume (432) at the 2004 end, so year 2003 and volume 431 do not fit together. Either the volume or the year is misprinted; the authors can say which (421 is the likely intended volume).
Second check: another model agreed
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Reference or label Ref. 97: "Vaughan DG, Spouge JR (2002) Clim Change 53:65–91." The volume may be 52 rather than 53.
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 97
Vaughan DG, Spouge JR (2002) Clim Change 53:65–91.
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that Vaughan and Spouge, "Risk estimation of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet", appeared in Climatic Change volume 52, pages 65–91 (2002). The entry is printed as quoted on the page 8 image. Nothing in the files can confirm or refute the volume (both volumes fall in 2002), so this needs a check against the publisher record or Crossref before it is put to the authors.
Second check: another model agreed
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Reference or label Ref. 19: "Holland MM (2006) Geophys Res Lett 33:L23503." The entry lists a single author; the cited article appears to have three (Holland, Bitz, Tremblay).
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 19
Holland MM (2006) Geophys Res Lett 33:L23503.
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that Geophys Res Lett 33:L23503 (2006) is "Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice" by Holland MM, Bitz CM and Tremblay B. The entry is printed as quoted (page 8 image) with one author. The text's use of ref. 19 on page 4 (IPCC models becoming ice-free in September, abrupt retreat) fits that article. The author list cannot be verified from the files.
Second check: another model agreed
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12 minor (typos and the like; most checked by the judge only)
Wording "other candidate tipping elements, which are not listed here because they did not meet conditions 2–4 for policy relevance. Some are listed in Table 1", whereas Table 1 gives the critical value for Tundra and Permafrost as "Missing", footnoted "Meaning no subcontinental scale critical threshold could be identified", which is the requirement the paper attaches to condition 1.
- p. 6 "Others" paragraph
which are not listed here because they did not meet conditions 2–4 for policy relevance. Some are listed in Table 1
- p. 3 Table 1, footnote ‖ (applied to Tundra and Permafrost, critical value "Missing")
Meaning no subcontinental scale critical threshold could be identified, even though a local geographical threshold may exist.
- p. 3 text below Table 1 (continuation of the description of condition 1)
at a subcontinental scale, and/or past evidence of threshold
- p. 6 Others section
meet conditions 2–4 for policy relevance
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Viewed the Others paragraph (page 6) and Table 1 with footnotes (page 3). Page 3 text says condition 1 needs a basis "for expecting a system to exhibit a critical threshold (ρcrit) at a subcontinental scale". For Tundra and Permafrost the table's footnote says no such threshold could be identified, so their exclusion appears to rest on condition 1, not conditions 2–4 as the Others sentence says. The sentence is loose rather than a data error, and the paper defers the reasons to SI Appendix 2 ("Those candidates that did not make the short list (and why) are discussed in SI Appendix 2"), which is not among the files; it may state the reasons precisely. Wording point only.
Second check: another model agreed
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Typo The abbreviation is defined as "ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs)" (pages 3-4) and used as OAGCM in the sea-ice, THC and ENSO sections, but the Sahara/Sahel section prints "in two AOGCMs, the WAM collapses" and "A third AOGCM", a form never defined.
- p. 3 Arctic Sea-Ice section, end of page (definition)
IPCC projections with ocean-atmosphere general circulation
- p. 4 top of left column (definition continued)
models (OAGCMs) (12)
- p. 5 Sahara/Sahel and West African Monsoon section
in two AOGCMs, the WAM collapses
- p. 5 Sahara/Sahel and West African Monsoon section
AOGCM with the most realistic present-day WAM
Judge's note: Checked the page 5 crop: "OAGCM"/"OAGCMs" in the left column (ENSO) and "AOGCMs"/"AOGCM" in the right column (WAM) of the same page. Text search finds OAGCM defined once (pages 3-4) and AOGCM only in the WAM paragraph, with no definition. Both orders are in use in the literature, so the meaning is not in doubt; it is an inconsistency within the paper.
Second check: none (judge only)
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Typo "(Ross and Fischner-Ronne) ice shelves (12, 37)": the ice shelf name appears to be misspelled (Filchner-Ronne).
- p. 4 West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) section, right column
Fischner-Ronne) ice shelves (12, 37)
- p. 4 West Antarctic Ice Sheet section
Fischner-Ronne) ice shelves
- p. 4 WAIS paragraph
(Ross and Fischner-Ronne) ice shelves
- p. 4 WAIS paragraph
Fischner-Ronne
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: the Antarctic ice shelf is named Filchner-Ronne (after Wilhelm Filchner). The page 4 crop shows "Fischner-Ronne" printed as quoted, so it is not an extraction artefact. The name appears only once in the article, so there is no internal comparison.
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Typo "The first step is to asses the sensitivity of each tipping element to global warming": "asses" should be "assess".
- p. 6 Ranking the Threat, first paragraph
first step is to asses the sensitivity of each tipping element
- p. 6 Ranking the Threat, first paragraph
first step is to asses the sensitivity
- p. 6 Ranking the Threat, first paragraph
The first step is to asses the sensitivity of each tipping element
- p. 6 Ranking the Threat, first paragraph
asses the sensitivity of each tipping
Judge's note: Crop of page 6 shows "asses" printed in full on one line (no line-break hyphenation). Plain misspelling; the abstract uses "assess" correctly.
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Typo "Here we report a subset that reflect the range of scientific perspectives": singular "subset" with plural verb "reflect".
- p. 6 Ranking the Threat, elicitation paragraph
Here we report a subset that reflect the range of
Judge's note: Crop of page 6 shows the sentence as quoted. The antecedent of "that" is "a subset" (preceding sentence: "The full results will be presented separately"), so the verb should be "reflects". Cosmetic grammar slip.
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Typo Ref. 81: "Betts RA, Cox PN, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004)" gives "Cox PN", while refs 2 and 80 give the same author as "Cox PM".
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 81
Betts RA, Cox PN, Collins M, Harris PP
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 80
Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M, Harris PP
- p. 8 Reference 81
Betts RA, Cox PN, Collins M
- p. 8 Reference 80
Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M
Judge's note: Crop of page 8 shows ref. 80 "Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004) Theor Appl Climatol 78:137–156" directly above ref. 81 "Betts RA, Cox PN, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004) Theor Appl Climatol 78:157–175"; ref. 2 also has "Cox PM". Same author group, same journal volume, adjoining page ranges, so the differing initial is an internal inconsistency visible in the list itself.
Second check: none (judge only)
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Typo Ref. 27: "Mitrovica JX, Tamislea ME, Davis JL, Milne GA (2001) Nature 409:1026–1029." The second author's surname appears to be misspelled (Tamisiea).
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 27
Mitrovica JX, Tamislea ME, Davis JL, Milne GA (2001)
- p. 8 Reference 27
Mitrovica JX, Tamislea ME, Davis JL, Milne GA
- p. 8 Reference 27
Tamislea ME
- p. 8 Reference 10
Canadel J
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the second author of this Nature article is M. E. Tamisiea. The crop of page 8 shows "Tamislea" with an l (the sans-serif l is clearly taller than an i and has no dot). The name occurs once in the paper, so there is no internal comparison. This cluster is confirmed for ref. 27 only; the other names listed in it (Canadel, Oritz, Federov) are judged in C015, C014 and C013.
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Typo Ref. 53: "Philander SG, Federov A (2003) Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 31:579–594." The co-author's surname appears to be misspelled (Fedorov).
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 53
Philander SG, Federov A (2003) Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 31:579–594.
- p. 8 Reference 53
Philander SG, Federov A (2003)
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the co-author of this Annual Review article publishes as Fedorov (A. V. Fedorov). The page 8 image shows "Federov A" as quoted. No other occurrence of the name in the paper to compare against.
Second check: none (judge only)
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Typo Ref. 72: "de Menocal P, Oritz J, Guilderson T, Adkins J, Sarnthein M, Baker L, Yarusinsky M (2000) Quat Sci Rev 19:347–361." "Oritz" appears to be a misspelling of Ortiz, and "de Menocal" differs from "deMenocal PB" in ref. 58.
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 72
de Menocal P, Oritz J, Guilderson T, Adkins J
- p. 8 Reference 72
de Menocal P, Oritz J, Guilderson T
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the second author of this Quat Sci Rev article is J. Ortiz. The page 8 crop shows "de Menocal P, Oritz J" as quoted. The internal part can be checked: ref. 58 on the same page prints "Koutavas A, deMenocal PB, Olive GC, Lynch-Stieglitz J", so the same surname is set two ways ("de Menocal P" and "deMenocal PB") within the list.
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Typo Ref. 10: "Rial JA, Pielke RA, Beniston M, Claussen M, Canadel J, Cox P, Held H, De Noblet-Ducoudre N ..." The surname "Canadel" appears to be misspelled (Canadell).
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 10
Claussen M, Canadel J, Cox P, Held H
- p. 8 Reference 10
Claussen M, Canadel J, Cox P
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the fifth author of Rial et al. (2004) Clim Change 65:11–38 is J. Canadell. The page 8 crop shows "Canadel J" with a single l, as quoted. The name occurs once in the paper, so there is no internal comparison.
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Typo Reference 61 prints "Collins M, Groups TCM (2005) Clim Dyn 24:89–104."; "Groups TCM" is formatted as a personal surname with initials and appears to be a mangled collective author ("The CMIP Modelling Groups").
- p. 8 Reference list, ref. 61
Collins M, Groups TCM (2005) Clim Dyn 24:89–104.
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the second author of Clim Dyn 24:89–104 is the collective "The CMIP Modelling Groups". Viewed the crop of the reference list on PDF page 8; ref. 61 reads exactly "Collins M, Groups TCM (2005) Clim Dyn 24:89–104." "Groups" with initials "TCM" is not a plausible personal name and matches the pattern of a corporate author converted to surname-plus-initials. The true author line of the cited article cannot be checked from the files, so this goes to the authors as a query. Cosmetic: the source remains identifiable by journal, volume and pages.
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Typo Reference 111 prints "Edenhofer O, Lessman K, Kemfert C, Grubb M, Köhler J (2006)"; the second author's surname is said to be "Lessmann".
- p. 8 Reference 111
Edenhofer O, Lessman K, Kemfert C
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the second author of the cited Energy Journal special-issue article is Kai Lessmann, spelled with two n's. Viewed the crop of the reference list on PDF page 8; ref. 111 reads "Edenhofer O, Lessman K, Kemfert C, Grubb M, Köhler J (2006) Energy J: Special Issue on Endogenous Technological Change and the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilisation Special Issue 1:57–108." The name occurs only once in the article, so there is no internal spelling to compare against; the correct spelling cannot be verified from the files.
Second check: none (judge only)