Acceleration of the Contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea Level Rise
Geophysical Research Letters, 2011 · paper · Earth science
Presents a two-decade record of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass balance, validated by comparing two independent methods. Reports a combined 2006 loss of 475 gigatonnes per year, with losses accelerating by 36.3 gigatonnes per year squared.
Checked: PDF from escholarship.org, fetched 4 Oct 2026. Page numbers are those of that PDF.
3 findings
Substance Para [19] gives the current acceleration in ice sheet loss as "starting at 500 Gt/yr in 2008 and increasing at 36.5 Gt/yr2", while the same paragraph opens with "the acceleration in ice sheet loss of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2" and the abstract, paras [15], [16], [20] and the Figure 2c label all give 36.3.
- p. 5 Discussion, para [19]
starting at 500 Gt/yr in 2008 and increasing at 36.5 Gt/yr2
- p. 5 Discussion, para [19], first sentence
If the acceleration in ice sheet loss of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2
- p. 5 Figure 2c label
-36.3±2 Gt/yr2
- p. 5 Discussion [19]
increasing at 36.5 Gt/yr2
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Read para [19] on the page 5 image: '36.5 Gt/yr2' is printed there, and '36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2' in the first sentence of the same paragraph. Figure 2c on page 4 is labelled '-36.3±2 Gt/yr2'. The sentence calls it 'the current rate of acceleration', so it is the same quantity and no second estimate is described. The effect on the 2100 figure is small: at about 361 Gt per mm of sea level (a conversion not stated in the paper), 36.5 gives about 55.5 cm and 36.3 about 55.3 cm, against the printed 56 cm. The authors should say which value was meant and used.
Second check: another model agreed
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Reference or label Figure 1 caption gives the unit as "gigaton per year (10^12 kg/yr or trillion tons per year)"; 10^12 kg is a billion (10^9) metric tons, not a trillion.
- p. 3 Figure 1 caption
gigaton per year (1012 kg/yr or trillion tons per year)
- p. 3 Figure 1 caption
(1012 kg/yr or trillion tons per year)
Judge's note: Read the caption on the page 3 image; the exponent is printed correctly as a superscript (10^12 kg/yr), followed by 'or trillion tons per year'. With 1 ton = 1000 kg, 10^12 kg is 10^9 tons. The kilogram figure is right and the word 'trillion' is wrong by a factor of 1000 ('trillion kilograms' would be correct).
Second check: another model agreed
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Reference or label Reference list: "Thomas, R. H., and C. R. Bentley (1978), A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet, Quat. Res., 2, 150–170." — volume printed as 2; the Crossref record for this work gives volume 10.
- p. 6
Thomas, R. H., and C. R. Bentley (1978), A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarcti
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the 1978 Quaternary Research paper is in volume 10 (issue 2), per the Crossref record doi:10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4 supplied with the finding; this cannot be checked from the files. The page 6 image shows the entry exactly as quoted, with volume '2' in italics. An issue number printed in place of the volume would explain it. C020 is the same defect.
Second check: another model agreed, code check
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12 minor (typos and the like; most checked by the judge only)
Wording Record length is given two ways: "we present a 20‐year record of monthly ice sheet mass balance" (para [3]) and "the two‐decade long MBM observation record" (para [20]), against "the 18‐year MBM record" (para [15]), "over the last 18 years" (abstract) and "linear fit of MBM over 18 yr" (Figure 2 caption); the data span 1992–2009.
- p. 2 Introduction, para [3]
we present a 20‐year record of monthly ice sheet
- p. 5 Results, para [15]
validates the 18‐year MBM
- p. 5 Conclusions, para [20]
Using the two‐decade long MBM observation
- p. 2 Introduction, paragraph [3]
we present a 20‐year record of monthly ice sheet mass balance
Judge's note: Read all the quoted passages on pages 2, 4 and 5; each is as quoted. The figures and para [15] give the period as 1992–2009, which is 18 years. '20-year' and 'two-decade' are loose descriptions of the same record. This is a wording inconsistency and does not affect any number.
Second check: another model agreed
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Wording The GRACE/MBM comparison is described as covering "the last 8 years" (abstract, para [3], para [15] "records over the last 8 years validates"; Figure 2 caption "GRACE over 8 yr"), but para [12] gives the common period as "2002.9 to 2009.5", which is 6.6 years.
- p. 5 Results, paragraph [15]
records over the last 8 years validates
- p. 2 Introduction, paragraph [3]
during the last 8 years
- p. 4 Results, paragraph [12]
for the common time period 2002.9 to 2009.5
Judge's note: Read page 4 and 5 images and the text of page 2. Para [8] gives the GRACE data span as April 2002 to June 2010 (about 8.2 years) and para [9] says the filtering is not applied on the first and last 6 months, so '8 years' loosely describes the raw GRACE series while the stated comparison window is 6.6 years. A loose round description rather than an error of substance; either form could be defended, hence observation.
Second check: another model agreed
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Wording Para [10] says of the SMB variations in Figure 1: "Percentage‐wise, these variations are comparable, but the absolute values are 3–4 times larger in Antarctica compared to Greenland"; the plotted Greenland and Antarctic SMB series swing over ranges of similar absolute size.
- p. 4 Results, para [10]
comparable, but the absolute values are 3–4 times larger in
- p. 3 Figure 1a and 1b, y-axes
Greenland SMB and D* (Gt/yr)
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Read off the Figure 1 panels on the page 3 image, by eye. Greenland SMB runs from about 150 to about 700 Gt/yr on an axis of 100–700; Antarctic SMB from about 1820 to about 2430 Gt/yr on an axis of 1800–2400. The two ranges are of similar absolute size, and as a share of mean SMB the Greenland swings are much the larger. The authors may mean a statistic that is not plotted, or the size of SMB itself, so this is a question about what '3–4 times larger' refers to. The ranges in the arithmetic are figure readings, not printed values.
Second check: another model agreed
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Wording Para [19] projects "starting at 500 Gt/yr in 2008 and increasing at 36.5 Gt/yr2", but para [16] gives "In year 2006, the total ice sheet loss was 475 ± 158 Gt/yr (regression line in Figure 2c)" with an acceleration of "36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2"; the regression gives about 548 Gt/yr in 2008, and the acceleration is 36.3 everywhere else.
- p. 5 Discussion, para [19]
starting at 500 Gt/yr in 2008
- p. 5 Discussion, para [16]
In year 2006, the total ice sheet loss was 475 ± 158 Gt/yr (regression line in Figure 2c)
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Read page 5 image. Paras [16] and [19] print the values as quoted. 475 + 2*36.3 = 547.6 Gt/yr for 2008, against the stated 500; 500 is inside the ±158 uncertainty and may be a deliberately round starting value, but the paper does not say so. The same sentence uses 36.5 Gt/yr2 where the abstract, para [15], [16], [19] (first sentence), [20] and Figure 2c all give 36.3. The 56 cm result does follow from the stated inputs (about 200,468 Gt, roughly 55 cm at 362 Gt per mm, the conversion being outside the paper). No explanation of the 500 or the 36.5 found in the article text.
Second check: another model agreed
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Typo Repository cover page misspells 'available': "availalbe at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/".
- p. 1
availalbe at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Judge's note: Read on the page 1 image. The misspelling is there as quoted. Page 1 is the eScholarship cover sheet added by the repository, not part of the journal article, so the error is the repository's and not the authors'.
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Typo Abbreviation is defined as "the mass budget method (MB)" in para [3] but used as "MBM" from the next sentence ("The MBM compares the surface mass balance") and throughout.
- p. 2 Introduction, para [3]
budget method (MB) and the gravity method
- p. 2 Introduction, para [3], next sentence
The MBM compares the surface mass balance
- p. 2 Introduction [3]
the mass budget method (MB)
- p. 2 Introduction, para [3]
the mass budget method (MB) and the gravity method
Judge's note: Read para [3] on page 2: '(MB)' is followed directly by 'The MBM compares'. 'MB' is not used again anywhere in the text; the Figure 2 caption has 'Mass Budget Method (MBM)'. The definition has dropped a letter.
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Typo Cited author's surname is printed "Ramilien et al., 2006" in para [2] and "Ramilien, G., et al. (2006), Interannual variations" in the reference list; the author's name is believed to be Ramillien.
- p. 2 Introduction, para [2]
Ramilien et al., 2006
- p. 6 References
Ramilien, G., et al. (2006)
- p. 6 References
Ramilien, G., et al. (2006), Interannual variations
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the first author of the 2006 Global and Planetary Change paper (53, 198–208) spells the surname Ramillien, with a double l. The paper prints 'Ramilien' in both places (pages 2 and 6), so it is internally consistent and the spelling cannot be checked from the files.
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Typo Figure 2 caption labels the panels "(a) Greenland; (b) Antarctica; and c) the sum of Greenland and Antarctica"; the opening parenthesis of (c) is missing.
- p. 4 Figure 2 caption
(a) Greenland; (b) Antarctica; and c)
- p. 4 Figure 2 caption
and c) the sum of Greenland and Antarctica
Judge's note: Read the caption on the page 4 image: '(a)' and '(b)' have both parentheses, 'c)' has only the closing one.
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Typo Para [17]: "the mass loss has decreased in southeast Greenland since 2005, yet still maintains above its level in 1996" — "maintains" has no object; "remains above" is evidently meant.
- p. 5 Discussion, para [17]
yet still maintains above its
Judge's note: Read page 5 image, left column, para [17]. The text is printed as quoted. Cosmetic; meaning is recoverable.
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Typo Reference list, Ivins et al. (2011): last author printed as "A. Rlke"; a letter is missing from the surname (Rülke).
- p. 6 References, Ivins et al.
A. Rlke (2011)
- p. 6 Reference list, Ivins et al. (2011)
A. Rlke (2011), On‐land ice loss
- p. 6 References, Ivins et al. (2011)
A. Rlke (2011), On‐land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the co-author's surname is Rülke. The page 6 image and the crop both show "A. Rlke (2011)" in print, so this is not a text-layer loss; a dropped 'ü' in typesetting is the obvious cause, and 'Rlke' is not a plausible surname as printed.
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Typo Reference list entry "Joughin, I., W. Abdalati, and M. Fahnestock (2004), Large fluctuations in speed on Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, Nature, 432, 608–610" is not cited anywhere in the text.
- p. 6 References
Joughin, I., W. Abdalati, and M. Fahnestock (2004), Large fluctuations in
- p. 6 References
Joughin, I., W. Abdalati, and M. Fahnestock (2004), Large fluctuations in speed on Jakobshavn Isbræ
Judge's note: Read the full article text (pages 2-6) and the page 6 image. 'Joughin' occurs only in this reference entry and as a co-author in the Howat et al. (2007) entry; no 'Joughin et al., 2004' citation appears in the abstract, body or figure captions. The Jakobshavn and seasonal-variability statements cite Howat et al. 2007, Luckman and Murray 2005 and Pritchard et al. 2009. Harmless to content.
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Typo Reference list, Velicogna and Wahr (2006): title printed as "Measurements of time variable gravity shows a large mass loss in Antarctica" — plural subject with singular verb, and apparently not the published title.
- p. 6 References, Velicogna and Wahr (2006)
Measurements of time variable gravity
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the published title is 'Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica'. The page 6 image shows the entry as quoted, with 'Measurements ... shows'; the subject-verb disagreement is visible on the page, but whether the entry misquotes the original title can only be settled against the Science article.
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