Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing over the Past Six Centuries
Nature, 1998 · paper · Earth science
Reconstructs global yearly surface temperature patterns for the past six centuries from multiproxy climate records, and correlates them with greenhouse gases, solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols. Reports greenhouse gases as the dominant forcing in the twentieth century.
Checked: PDF from michaelmann.net, fetched 4 Oct 2026. Page numbers are those of that PDF.
6 findings
Reference or label Fig. 7 caption: "evolving multivariate correlation of NH series with the three forcings NH, Solar, log CO2" lists NH (the response series) as a forcing and leaves out DVI.
- p. 6 Figure 7 caption
of NH series with the three forcings NH, Solar, log CO2
- p. 6 Figure 7 legend, bottom panel description
evolving multivariate correlation of NH series with the three forcings NH, Solar, log CO2
- p. 6 Figure 7 caption, bottom panel
evolving multivariate correlation of NH series with the three forcings NH, Solar, log CO2.
- p. 6 Figure 7 caption, bottom panel
multivariate correlation of NH series with the three forcings NH, Solar, log CO2
Judge's note: Page image crop C007-a: the caption first defines 'NH' as the reconstructed temperature series and 'DVI' as the weighted volcanic dust veil index, then describes the DVI significance threshold for the bottom panel. So the three forcings are Solar, log CO2 and DVI. The list as printed is a wrong label.
Second check: another model agreed
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Reference or label Ref. 13 "Jacoby, G. C., D'Arrigo, R. D. & Tsevegyn, D. Mongolian tree rings and 20th-century warming. Science 9, 771–773 (1996)." gives an implausible volume number (9) for a 1996 Science article.
- p. 9 Reference 13
Science 9, 771–773 (1996).
- p. 9 Reference 13
Mongolian tree rings and 20th-century warming. Science 9, 771–773 (1996).
- p. 9 Reference 13
Mongolian tree rings and 20th-century warming. Science 9, 771–773 (1996)
- p. 9 Reference 13
Science 9, 771–773 (1996)
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: Science volumes in 1996 were in the 270s, and this article is reportedly in vol. 273. The page image (crop C013-a) shows 'Science 9, 771–773 (1996)'. The other Science references in the same list carry volume numbers in the hundreds, which supports reading '9' as a misprint.
Second check: another model agreed
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Reference or label References 4 and 34 print the first author as "Delworth, T. D."; the author's initials are reportedly T. L.
- p. 9 References 4 and 34
Delworth, T. D., Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R. J.
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: that the GFDL author of these J. Clim. 1993 and GRL 1997 papers is Thomas L. Delworth. The crop and page 9 show "Delworth, T. D." in both entries, so the printed text is as quoted.
Second check: another model agreed
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Reference or label Reference 10 prints "Holocene 1, 165–179 (1992)"; the 1992 Holocene volume is reportedly 2.
- p. 9
Jones, P. D. & Briffa, K. R. Global surface air temperature variations during the 20th cen
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: the Crossref record (doi:10.1177/095968369200200208) giving volume 2. Holocene began in 1991, so 1992 would be volume 2, but this cannot be checked within the files. The crop shows volume 1 printed as quoted.
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Reference or label Reference 13 prints "Science 9, 771–773 (1996)"; the Science volume for 1996 is reportedly 273.
- p. 9
Jacoby, G. C., D’Arrigo, R. D. & Tsevegyn, D. Mongolian tree rings and 20th-century warmin
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: the Crossref record (doi:10.1126/science.273.5276.771) giving volume 273. Within the paper, ref. 26 lists Science 275 for 1997, which makes volume 9 for a 1996 Science paper implausible. The crop shows "Science 9, 771–773 (1996)".
Second check: another model agreed, code check
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Wording The Fig. 3 caption reads "values that are insignificant at the 99% level are shown in grey negative; but 99% significant values are shown in yellow", which is garbled and does not clearly map onto the colour bar (grey for negative values, yellow 0.0–0.25).
- p. 4 Figure 3 caption
insignificant at the 99% level are shown in grey negative; but 99% significant
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Checked page 4: the caption text and the colour bars. Words appear to be missing, so the colour key cannot be read unambiguously from the caption.
Second check: another model agreed
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9 minor (typos and the like; most checked by the judge only)
Reference or label Ref. 10 is printed as "Holocene 1, 165–179 (1992)".
- p. 9 Reference 10
Holocene 1, 165–179 (1992).
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Rests on outside knowledge: Holocene vol. 1 appeared in 1991. Other entries in this list (Holocene 3, 1993; 5, 1995; 6, 1996) imply vol. 2 = 1992, so either the volume or the year appears inconsistent.
Second check: another model agreed
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Wording Introduction says "we analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of climate change over the past 500 years", while the title, abstract and results describe reconstructions back to AD 1400 (about six centuries).
- p. 1 Introduction, final paragraph
change over the past 500 years
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Checked page 1. The phrase is inconsistent with 'six centuries' and with the reconstruction starting at AD 1400. It may refer loosely to the period of skilful spatial patterns, so only the authors can say which span is meant.
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Wording The Fig. 2 caption gives the EOFs as "of the global temperature data from 1902 to 1980", while Methods says the eigenvector decomposition used "N = 1,128 months of data available from 1902 to 1995".
- p. 2 Figure 2 caption
of the global temperature data from 1902 to 1980
- p. 8 Methods, Calibration
the N ¼ 1,128 months of data available from 1902 to 1995 were
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Checked the page 2 caption and the page 8 Methods. 1,128 months corresponds to 94 years (1902–95). The period of the PCA shown in Fig. 2 is stated two ways; 1902–80 is the proxy training interval. The authors need to say which period applies.
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Wording Reconstruction periods "11 from 1780–1980, 9 from 1760–1779, 8 from 1750–1759" (p. 5) are said to come from "the calibration experiments described above", but those experiments (p. 3–4) give 11 eigenvectors only for the 1820 network and describe no 1780 or 1750 step (8 eigenvectors).
- p. 5 Temperature reconstructions, first paragraph
11 from 1780–1980, 9 from 1760–1779, 8 from 1750–1759
- p. 3 Calibration results (1) and (2)
In the reconstructions from 1820 onwards based on the full
- p. 5 Temperature reconstructions, first paragraph
11 from 1780–1980, 9 from 1760–1779
- p. 3 Calibration results item (1)
In the reconstructions from 1820 onwards based on the full multiproxy network of 112 indicators, 11 eigenvectors
Only the authors can say what is right here.
Judge's note: Checked p. 3–4 calibration items (1)–(6): 1820/112 indicators → 11 eigenvectors; 1760/93 → 'at least nine'; 1700/74 → 5; 1600/57 → 4; 1450/24 → 2; 1400/22 → 1. The p. 5 list (crop C005-a) uses boundaries 1780 (11) and 1750–1759 (8), and neither appears among the experiments described. Possible innocent explanation: p. 3 says these are only the 'main results' and that details are in the Supplementary Information, which is not among the files, so intermediate steps may be reported there. The p. 5 sentence still points to experiments 'described above', which do not contain these steps. Only the authors can say which boundaries are right.
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Typo Fig. 7 caption: "The grey bars indicate two difference 200-year windows of data" should read "two different 200-year windows".
- p. 6 Figure 7 caption, final sentence
The grey bars indicate two difference 200-year windows
- p. 6 Figure 7 legend, last sentence
The grey bars indicate two difference 200-year windows of data
- p. 6 Figure 7 caption
two difference 200-year windows
- p. 6
The grey bars indicate two difference 200-year windows of
Judge's note: The wording on the page image (crop C008-a) is as quoted. It is a plain wrong word form.
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Typo The text reads "during much of 1610–1995 period"; the article 'the' is missing.
- p. 7 Attribution section, volcanism sentence
perature during much of 1610–1995 period
Judge's note: The wording is visible in the page 7 image.
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Typo Matrix U and the text "is the time series Ñ-vector for proxy record p" use Ñ, while the training length is defined as N̄ = 79.
- p. 8 Methods, Calibration, matrix U and following sentence
is the time series N˜ -vector for proxy record p.
Judge's note: The page 8 image shows tilde subscripts in the last row of U and in the y(p) sentence. This is a notation slip.
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Typo The text reads "optimal weights on each on the Neofs PCs"; it should read "on each of the Neofs PCs".
- p. 8 Methods, after matrix G
each on the Neofs PCs and the multiproxy network
Judge's note: The wording is visible in the page 8 image.
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Typo Ref. 16 reads "across western North American since 1600" and ref. 17 reads "Western North American from 1600 to 1982"; 'North America' is needed.
- p. 9 References 16 and 17
temperature pattern across western North American since 1600
- p. 9 Reference 16
across western North American since 1600
- p. 9 Reference 17
Western North American from 1600 to 1982
Judge's note: The page image shows the adjective used where a noun is required in both titles. The exact original title wording would need checking against the source.
Second check: none (judge only)